Iron Ore Export Revenues to Decline by 2027
Australia expects iron ore export revenues to fall from $116 billion in 2024-25 to $97 billion in 2026-27. This decline results from weakening global steel demand and reduced production in China, the world’s largest steelmaker. Meanwhile, increasing supply from Brazil and Africa saturates the market, further pressuring prices.
The Australian government’s June Resources and Energy Quarterly report highlights falling FOB prices for 62% Fe iron ore, from $93/ton in 2024 to $74/ton by 2027. Concurrently, China’s steel production dropped 1% in early 2025 due to weaker real estate demand and declining plant profitability, directly impacting iron ore imports.
Market Dynamics Impacting Australia’s Iron Ore Exports
Australia remains the global leader in iron ore exports, supplying over 50% of the market. However, competition will intensify as new African projects like Guinea’s Simandou increase supply. Although Australian exports may rebound to 927 million tons by 2026-27, falling prices and a strong Australian dollar will compress profits.
Iron ore futures on major exchanges show mixed signals, with Dalian Commodity Exchange prices rising near $100/ton while Singapore Exchange contracts decline slightly since May. These fluctuations reflect ongoing uncertainty driven by shifting demand and supply balances.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
Australia faces a significant revenue contraction due to China’s steel slowdown and emerging global competitors. Exporters must adapt to lower prices and currency headwinds. Market watchers should monitor African supply expansions and China’s policy shifts for future iron ore demand trends.
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