Export Restrictions and Substitution Pressure Weigh on Demand

China’s antimony market is expected to face weak demand in 2025. Export restrictions, substitution pressures, and slowing solar glass industry growth will reduce consumption. However, global resource depletion and concentrate shortages will continue to tighten supply. These factors will limit the potential for a significant price drop.

Since late August 2024, 99.65% grade antimony metal prices in China have dropped slightly from Yn164,000/t to Yn140,000-142,000/t ex-works. This reflects the impact of export controls that have reduced overseas sales and redirected more material to domestic consumers.

Market participants remain vigilant about potential new trade barriers in 2025. Critical minerals, including antimony, are becoming further entangled in geopolitical tensions. From 2021-2022, China produced 20,000t of antimony metal, exporting 2,700t, while antimony trioxide production reached 29,600t, with 12,400t exported in the same period.

Substitution Risks Grow, But Full Replacement Remains Unlikely

The flame-retardant industry, a dominant consumer of antimony, has faced growing pressure from alternative materials. These include tin dioxide, cerium dioxide, magnesium hydroxide, and certain rare earth compounds.

Additionally, the World Health Organization (WHO) has classified antimony trioxide as a probable carcinogen. As a result, some European countries have restricted its use in toys, electronics, and cosmetics. These factors may push manufacturers to explore substitutes. This is especially true amid weak demand in the plastics, rubber, and furniture industries due to China’s slowing economy and real estate downturn.

Still, market observers believe a complete shift away from antimony is unlikely. Antimony-bromine flame retardants are uniquely valuable because they do not alter plastic structures, making them irreplaceable in certain applications. As long as bromine prices remain low, manufacturers are expected to continue using antimony-bromine flame retardants.

Solar Glass Industry Slowdown to Impact Antimony Demand

Over the past three years, China’s solar glass industry has been a rapidly growing consumer of antimony. The industry uses sodium pyroantimonate, a downstream antimony product, as a refining agent.

Antimony demand from the photovoltaic (PV) industry rose from 22,000t in 2022 to 30,000t in 2023. However, this growth has slowed since July 2024 due to solar glass overcapacity concerns.

In November 2024, the Chinese government introduced new regulations for the photovoltaic sector. These prioritize technological innovation and product quality over rapid capacity expansion. These measures are expected to curb antimony demand from the solar industry in 2025.

Tight Concentrate Supply to Limit Price Declines

Despite recent softening in Chinese domestic antimony prices, a return to 2022-2023 price levels is unlikely due to ongoing supply constraints. Since late November 2024, Chinese antimony producers have been hesitant to lower prices further. They cite concerns over concentrate shortages.

To compensate for declining domestic reserves, China has ramped up antimony concentrate imports. They brought in 45,136t from January to October 2024, a 44% increase year-on-year, according to customs data. However, these imports often contain only 20-30% metal content, limiting their effectiveness in boosting overall supply.

China’s annual metal content production of antimony has plummeted from 6,000-8,500t before 2020 to 3,500-4,100t in 2021-2023. This reflects worsening resource depletion. 2024 production is estimated at 4,500t, with no major recovery expected in 2025.

Conclusion

China’s antimony market in 2025 will be shaped by the conflicting forces of weak demand and tight supply. Export restrictions, substitution risks, and a slowdown in solar glass manufacturing will put downward pressure on demand. However, ongoing resource depletion and low-quality imports will prevent a significant price collapse.