Chinese Demand Drives Iron Ore Export Growth
Australia exported 75 million tons of iron ore in July 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase. The surge came primarily from strong demand in China, which imported 63 million tons—up 7.4% from the same month last year. This rebound in Chinese steel production temporarily offsets weakening imports from other Asian economies.
Meanwhile, South Korea and Vietnam cut back significantly. South Korea imported only 4.3 million tons, a 22% decline year-on-year, due to lower domestic steel production. Vietnam reduced its purchases by 37%, bringing its total down to just 663,000 tons. These drops underscore a broader trend of regional demand divergence, as Chinese infrastructure and industrial projects continue to support iron ore prices.
Despite mixed signals across Asia, Australian miners maintained solid output. Preliminary data suggest shipments may rise further in August, with port activity in Western Australia showing slight year-on-year gains.
Iron Ore Prices Rise as Australia Remains Competitive
As Chinese demand held firm, iron ore prices climbed through the end of the summer. The Argus ICX index (62% Fe, CFR Qingdao) rose from $93.05 per ton in early July to $103.35/t by September 3. This trend suggests Australian iron ore remains cost-competitive globally, even as key buyers like Japan and South Korea scale back production.
Japan’s imports held steady at 4.4 million tons (+0.2% y/y), yet its Ministry of Economy projects a 2.3% decline in steel output through Q3. This marks the second consecutive quarter of contraction, reflecting broader headwinds in the regional steel sector.
Year-to-date (Jan–July 2025), Australian exports hit 517.4 million tons, up 0.5% compared to 2024. However, average prices declined to $83.8/t, and export revenues dropped 13.6% year-on-year to $43.4 billion. Australia’s forecast anticipates further price pressure, with FOB iron ore prices expected to fall to $83/t in 2025 and $74/t by 2027, due to weaker steel demand and rising competition from Brazil and Africa.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
Australia’s July export performance confirms its strategic reliance on China’s industrial cycle. However, weakening demand from other major Asian buyers introduces volatility into long-term forecasts. While iron ore prices rebounded in Q3, overreliance on China and growing supply from Brazil and West Africa may intensify price competition ahead. Traders should monitor steel production trends and China’s economic stimulus measures closely, as they will heavily influence Q4 pricing dynamics in the iron ore market.
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