Hot-Rolled Coil Price Increase Signals Market Recovery
Baosteel, a subsidiary of China Baowu Steel Group, raised its domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices for January 2026 by 100 yuan per ton ($14/t). This is the first increase since September. The price hike follows production cuts by steel mills aimed at reducing supply. Meanwhile, improvements in China’s domestic steel market also support the decision.
The global hot-rolled coil market has shown upward trends since November 2025. Prices in the EU and US increased due to stronger demand and reduced supply. However, China remained pressured by seasonal demand drops and export competition.
Market Dynamics Behind Baosteel’s Price Move
According to market analysts, China may see further price corrections of $5-10/t by year-end unless production decreases significantly or state incentives emerge. Meanwhile, 2025 may mark China’s lowest steel output in six years, despite growing iron ore imports. As a result, raw material purchases remain strong, creating conflicting supply-demand trends.
Baosteel’s HRC price adjustment highlights the ongoing balancing act between domestic demand, production limits, and global market conditions.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
Baosteel’s January 2026 HRC price increase reflects cautious optimism in China’s steel market. SuperMetalPrice anticipates that continued production control may stabilize domestic prices, while global trends support incremental recovery. Investors should monitor production cuts and raw material flows for strategic insights into Chinese and international steel markets.
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