The BHP copper project investment plan signals a decisive push to expand global copper capacity. BHP unveiled a pipeline of projects that could raise output by 1.8–2 million tonnes over the next decade. The company detailed the roadmap in its half-year report released on 17 February.
BHP will make final investment decisions between 2026 and 2032. Meanwhile, the company expects project start-ups from 2028 onward. These expansions directly support rising copper demand from electrification and digital infrastructure.
BHP Copper Project Investment Targets Long-Term Growth
The BHP copper project investment strategy centers on large-scale developments in South Australia. The flagship Copper South Australia Phase 1 and Phase 2 projects will enter production between 2029 and 2038. Together, they could lift capacity by 790,000–910,000 tonnes.
BHP already strengthened its South Australian operations with a $555 million investment in October 2025. The company produced 22,200 tonnes of copper concentrate in the December quarter, down 14% year on year. However, it increased copper cathode output to 52,900 tonnes, up 17% year on year.
BHP has maintained production guidance of 1.9–2 million tonnes for the July 2025–June 2026 fiscal year. This steady outlook reflects operational stability despite market volatility.
Global Copper Demand Outlook Supports BHP Copper Project Investment
Global copper demand underpins the BHP copper project investment pipeline. BHP expects demand to rise from 34 million tonnes per year in 2026 to over 50 million tonnes by 2050. Economic growth, renewable energy projects, and digital infrastructure will drive this expansion.
Furthermore, BHP estimates producers must commit 10 million tonnes per year of new capacity by 2035. Without this investment, supply deficits will widen across the copper market.
Other major players share this outlook. South32 projects an 8 million tonne annual supply shortfall by 2035. Cochilco and Nornickel also forecast structural copper deficits.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
The BHP copper project investment pipeline reinforces copper’s strategic role in the energy transition. Supply growth must accelerate to prevent prolonged deficits. However, capital discipline and execution risks remain critical factors. We expect sustained investment momentum as producers position for tighter long-term copper fundamentals.
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