Brazil Steel Market Outlook Hinges on Anti-Dumping Measures

Brazil’s steel market outlook depends heavily on the implementation of anti-dumping measures.
Carlos Loureiro, president of INDA, stressed that delayed policies could trigger a pessimistic scenario.
If measures are enforced, domestic producers may see stabilization and improved market conditions.

Domestic steel production faces pressure despite protective measures.
Aço Brasil forecasts a 2.2% decline in 2026 compared with 2025, with imports rising further.
Rolled steel imports could increase by 10%, reaching over 6.3 million tonnes next year.

Steel prices show mixed trends across import and domestic markets.
Markets reported hot-rolled coil import prices at $515-530 per tonne in South America.
Domestic monthly prices in Brazil ranged from 3,650-3,950 Reais per tonne, reflecting slight declines.

Brazil Steel Market Hinges on Anti-Dumping Measures

Anti-dumping enforcement remains central to Brazil’s steel competitiveness.
Loureiro warned that without action, Chinese steel could dominate local markets.
Several countries’ protective measures increase trade diversion risks for Brazil.

Inventory and sales patterns highlight market volatility.
November purchases fell 7.5% month-on-month, while sales of flat steel products dropped 12%.
Year-on-year comparisons show moderate growth, signaling cautious recovery within INDA’s network.

Imports Pressure Domestic Steel Market

Steel imports climbed sharply in November 2025.
Total imports reached 265,900 tonnes, up 5.9% from the previous month and 29% year-on-year.
Imported products include hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized, pre-painted steel, and Galvalume.

Trade flows indicate rising pressure on local manufacturers.
If anti-dumping measures are delayed, Brazil could lose market share to imported steel.
Government policy will therefore directly influence 2026 steel performance.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Brazil’s steel sector faces a decisive year.
Anti-dumping measures will determine whether domestic producers regain control or cede ground to imports.
Rising global steel flows and Chinese competition make policy enforcement critical.
Investors and producers should monitor import trends, government deadlines, and INDA’s network performance closely.