China Iron Ore Imports Hold Up Amid Global Softening

Iron Ore Prices Remain Steady as China Supports Global Demand

Iron ore prices continue to defy bearish market trends, maintaining levels above $100 per metric ton in 2025. On August 6, the most-traded iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange closed at $101.71, showing minor movement from earlier sessions. Despite softening demand signals, China’s import activity remains the key stabilizer for iron ore pricing.

In the first half of 2025, China imported 592.2 million tons of iron ore, just 3% below the same period last year. Notably, June arrivals hit 105.95 million tons, the highest since December 2024, with July estimates reaching 101.32 million tons, according to Kpler. These robust figures underscore China’s strategic stockpiling amid weaker domestic steel output and uncertain global conditions.

Meanwhile, China’s steel production in June dropped 9.2% year-on-year to 83.18 million tons, the lowest monthly output in 2025. The first-half total reached 514.83 million tons, down 3% from 2024, reinforcing concerns over the second half of the year. Still, China’s consistent import behavior provides a firm floor under iron ore prices in the short term.

China Iron Ore Imports May Face Pressure in H2 2025

Despite steady pricing, several risk factors could pressure China’s iron ore imports moving forward. Steel exports from China fell 8.5% in June to 9.68 million tons. Although H1 exports rose 9.2%, softening demand from protectionist markets like the EU and US may weaken this support in H2.

Domestically, China continues to struggle with property sector instability and manufacturing headwinds. Lower infrastructure activity and ongoing tariff threats from key trading partners reduce the likelihood of any significant steel output recovery. This dynamic may result in reduced iron ore demand from mills seeking to manage costs and inventories.

Outside China, iron ore demand is also cooling. Global seaborne imports fell to 136.56 million tons in July, with Europe marking a third straight monthly decline. Japan remains a rare bright spot, with July imports rising to a three-month high at 7.73 million tons, while South Korea saw its lowest import level since February 2017 at 4.71 million tons.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

China’s iron ore imports remain a crucial price anchor amid a weakening global steel outlook. However, risks are building. Export headwinds, reduced production, and fragile real estate recovery could drag imports lower in H2 2025. Investors and producers should track China’s steel policy signals closely. Any cuts in output targets or regulatory shifts could rapidly unsettle the current price floor. Meanwhile, markets must monitor secondary demand zones like Japan and South Korea for early signs of balance or breakdown.