China Iron Ore Production Decline Signals Slower Steel Output in 2025

China Iron Ore Production Down 9.1% in First Half of 2025

China’s domestic iron ore production fell sharply in the first half of 2025, reflecting weakening industrial demand and slowing steel output. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Chinese mining companies produced 508.59 million tons of iron ore between January and June—down 9.1% year-on-year. For June alone, production reached 88.97 million tons, a year-over-year decline of 8.4%, though it rose 3.7% compared to May.

Meanwhile, China’s reliance on imported iron ore remains strong. Sea-borne shipments totaled 592.2 million tons in the first half, down 3% year-on-year. However, June imports surged 8% month-on-month to 105.95 million tons—the highest monthly volume this year. This increase occurred despite a drop in average import prices, which fell by $3.3 per ton to $92.9 per ton in June.

These supply trends emerge amid persistently low demand from the construction sector, particularly real estate. The combination of reduced domestic mining and fluctuating import activity highlights the complex balance China must maintain as it navigates steel output cuts and industrial slowdown.

Steel Output Falls as Beijing Targets Overcapacity and Heavy Industry Dependence

Steel production in China continues to reflect broader economic restructuring. In June 2025, output dropped 9.2% year-on-year to 83.2 million tons. Month-on-month, this figure declined by 3.9%, marking the third consecutive monthly contraction. As a result, total steel production for H1 2025 stood at 514.8 million tons—a 3% year-on-year drop and the lowest level since 2020.

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) forecasts a 4% decline in annual steel output for 2025. This aligns with Beijing’s national strategy to reduce overcapacity and shift away from heavy industry reliance. As infrastructure and real estate activity slow, the steel sector faces structural headwinds that are unlikely to ease in the short term.

Despite lower steel production, the rise in iron ore imports suggests that Chinese mills are maintaining inventory buffers or preparing for possible future rebounds. However, with prices still fluctuating—ranging between $92 and $96 per ton in June—the market remains vulnerable to global macroeconomic and policy shifts.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The 9.1% drop in China’s iron ore production reflects deeper changes in the country’s industrial trajectory. With steel output falling and economic policies discouraging heavy industry expansion, raw materials markets are entering a new phase of recalibration. For global iron ore suppliers, China’s softened demand signals the need to diversify markets and prepare for more measured Chinese growth. Iron ore prices, while temporarily stable, may face additional pressure as steelmakers adjust to a lower-output environment driven by state policy rather than market forces.