China steel production and exports 2026-2030: Beijing tightens control amid global uncertainty

China steel production and exports 2026-2030 face tighter regulation

China steel production and exports 2026-2030 will remain under strict government control. Beijing confirmed the policy during preparations for the next Five-Year Development Plan, Reuters reported.

China introduced production caps in 2021 to cut carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the property market slump reduced domestic steel demand. As a result, authorities now target chronic oversupply across the steel sector.

The National Development and Reform Commission highlighted supply and demand imbalances. Therefore, regulators plan deeper reforms based on market survival principles. China aims to block illegal new steel capacity during 2026-2030.

Production declines highlight structural pressure

China steel production and exports 2026-2030 already show clear contraction trends. In the first eleven months of 2025, output dropped four percent year on year. Analysts expect annual production below one billion tons for the first time in six years.

Chinese steelmakers cut November output by 10.9 percent year on year. Producers also reduced volumes by 2.9 percent from October. Consequently, monthly output fell to 69.87 million tons, the lowest since December 2023.

Despite weaker domestic demand, China expanded steel exports since 2023. Export growth helped offset internal losses. However, global markets responded with trade barriers and anti-dumping measures.

Export licensing may not curb global supply

China steel production and exports 2026-2030 will include new export licensing rules. Beijing plans licenses for nearly 300 steel products starting in 2026. Officials say the system improves oversight and quality control.

However, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation doubts any volume impact. Chairman Tadashi Imai argued that permits target quality, not exports. He also warned that subsidies keep Chinese oversupply active worldwide.

Imai, who leads Nippon Steel, also addressed US tariffs. He said higher duties trimmed profits but caused limited damage. Therefore, market outcomes still depend on real supply cuts from China.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

China steel production and exports 2026-2030 signal discipline, not guaranteed balance. Real price support requires sustained output reductions, not administrative controls alone. Meanwhile, global producers must brace for continued competition as policy intentions meet market realities.