China has experienced significant growth in steel exports during the first quarter of 2025, with shipments rising by 6.3% year-over-year (y/y), totaling 27.43 million tons. This marks the highest level of steel exports since 2016. Despite this surge, China’s iron ore imports saw a decline of 7.8% y/y during the same period, amounting to 285.31 million tons. These figures reflect a mixed outlook for China’s steel industry, with increased exports countered by reduced raw material imports.
Record Steel Exports Amid Global Trade Tensions
In March 2025, China’s steel exports reached 10.46 million tons, up 5.8% compared to the previous year. This increase comes despite concerns over rising global trade tensions, particularly following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump in January. China’s steel industry has benefited from strong overseas demand, while its domestic consumption remains relatively weak. In total, China’s steel production in 2024 decreased by 1.7% compared to 2023, yet the country’s exports set a record high of 110.72 million tons.
Iron Ore Imports Fall Unexpectedly
During Q1 2025, China’s iron ore imports dropped significantly, with March seeing a surprise decline of 6.7% y/y. This reduction in imports, which fell to 93.97 million tons, was attributed to the lingering effects of weather disruptions in February. Analysts had initially expected a recovery in March after cyclones in Australia, one of China’s major suppliers, caused delays. The decrease in imports led to a 2.6% drop in port stocks and contributed to a 2.5% increase in iron ore prices. However, experts anticipate a strong rebound in imports for April, with estimates ranging from 100 to 106 million tons.
Outlook for Q2 2025 and Beyond
As mining companies ramp up production to meet annual targets, China’s iron ore imports are expected to recover. Analysts predict that the total volume of imports will exceed 100 million tons in April 2025, bolstered by shipments that are currently in transit but have yet to clear customs. This recovery, along with the ongoing growth in steel exports, could support both China’s raw materials market and global steel prices.
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