Chinese Coke Prices Fall Amid Seasonal Decline in Steel Demand

Coke Prices Drop for Third Straight Week as Steel Demand Weakens

Chinese coke prices continued to slide last week, falling for the third consecutive time as the steel market entered a seasonal slowdown. From May 30 to June 6, prices at the port of Rizhao dropped 3.9% to $162.97 per ton (FOT), according to Kallanish. The market now faces growing bearish sentiment amid high inventory levels and cautious buying from steel mills.

Interestingly, June 4 saw a brief surge in coke and coking coal futures due to rumors of supply cuts and a proposed 20% tax on Mongolia’s mineral exports. Although the tax hike remains unconfirmed, it briefly influenced September 2025 coking coal contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which rose 7.19%. Despite this futures spike, spot prices remained mostly flat.

Steelmakers are showing reduced interest in restocking as China’s rolled steel market faces off-season demand. This cautious approach has led coke chemical producers to trim output in response to profit losses and rising inventories. Still, many coke producers have reported modest margin recoveries, pointing to a fragile balance in supply and demand.

Outlook for Chinese Coke Prices Remains Bearish

The near-term outlook for Chinese coke prices remains under pressure. Rising stockpiles and limited steel buying are likely to keep prices subdued. According to SMM, the national average coke price was $162.51 per ton (including VAT) as of June 13, underscoring the overall weakness in the market.

Earlier in May, coking coal prices also fell due to oversupply and cooling demand from the steel sector. This broader softening of upstream inputs suggests that metallurgical raw materials will continue to experience price instability, especially during the summer construction lull.

Longer-term prospects are also subdued unless demand from infrastructure and property sectors picks up. Unless policy-driven steel production boosts materialize, coke prices will likely trend downward, echoing the pattern of recent weeks.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The seasonal decline in China’s steel consumption continues to weigh on coke and coking coal prices. Short-term price relief seems unlikely, as demand remains weak and inventories stay elevated. Unless new government stimulus or infrastructure projects trigger a steel rebound, the outlook for coke remains bearish. Traders and producers should watch policy signals and tax developments in Mongolia, which could impact supply-side dynamics in the months ahead.