COP29: The Paris Agreement’s Progress and Challenges in Addressing Climate Change

The Paris Agreement: A Legally Binding Climate Treaty with Global Ambitions
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 and entered into force in 2016, remains the cornerstone of global climate policy. Its central goal is to limit the rise in global temperatures to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a more ambitious target to cap the increase at 1.5°C. This commitment, made by 194 parties, including 193 countries and the European Union, is based on the understanding that exceeding these temperature thresholds could trigger catastrophic impacts like severe flooding, heatwaves, and droughts. The Paris Agreement also includes commitments for wealthy nations to assist developing countries with both mitigation and adaptation efforts, through funding and technology transfers, to help them transition to greener energy systems and better prepare for climate impacts.

Since its adoption, the Paris Agreement has guided global climate efforts, but it also emphasizes that countries need to raise their climate ambitions every five years. This “ratchet mechanism” ensures that national climate action plans—known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—are updated regularly, with each cycle expected to show more ambitious targets. The agreement also sets the long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions globally by 2050-2100.

Progress So Far: A Global Effort That Still Falls Short
Since the Paris Agreement was signed, countries have been submitting NDCs that outline their emission reduction targets and strategies. However, the latest assessments show that the world is not on track to meet the 1.5°C target. In fact, the UN’s recent climate report warns that current national policies and NDCs would result in a global temperature rise of 3.1°C by 2100, well beyond the Paris targets. This alarming prediction has raised concerns among climate experts who say that the world must act much faster to cut emissions and prevent irreversible climate damage.

Despite advances in climate science and green technologies, many countries have failed to implement the ambitious policies necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly. In fact, the World Meteorological Organization recently reported that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere reached record highs in 2023, exacerbating the climate crisis and making it even harder to meet the Paris goals. The gap between current emission levels and the necessary reductions to avoid catastrophic warming underscores the growing urgency for stronger climate action.

COP29 in Baku: Key Priorities and Expectations
COP29, which will take place in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan, will be a crucial moment for global climate action. With the world facing mounting climate challenges, the summit will focus on several key issues critical to the success of the Paris Agreement. One of the most pressing topics will be the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance. Under the Paris Agreement, wealthier nations committed to providing financial support to developing countries to help them mitigate and adapt to climate change. COP29 will seek to agree on the specific financial targets for this goal, which will play a crucial role in enabling vulnerable countries to address the climate crisis.

Additionally, COP29 is expected to provide clearer guidelines on the use of international carbon credits. This is an important issue as countries look to enhance their efforts to reduce emissions through market-based mechanisms like carbon trading. The outcome of these discussions could help accelerate global emissions reductions by providing nations with more flexibility in how they meet their climate targets.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): The Push for More Ambitious Targets
At COP29, countries will be under pressure to announce updated NDCs, which are due by February 2025. These updated plans are expected to reflect more ambitious emissions reductions and climate commitments. For many nations, COP29 will be a key moment to align their climate actions with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. However, this will also be a challenging task, as countries face competing priorities, such as economic growth and energy security, that may complicate their ability to take bold action on climate change.

Next year’s COP in Brazil will mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, and experts believe it will be a more pivotal moment for climate action. With just five years remaining until the 2030 target to halve global emissions, COP30 is expected to play a critical role in determining whether nations can accelerate their efforts in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Success at COP29 in Baku could set the stage for a more ambitious and effective outcome in 2025, as the world gears up for the next critical phase of the climate fight.

Challenges Ahead: Political Will and Global Cooperation
The success of COP29—and ultimately the Paris Agreement—will depend largely on the political will of governments to act decisively and in a coordinated manner. Achieving the ambitious goals set out in Paris will require unprecedented cooperation across all sectors, from governments to the private sector, civil society, and the scientific community. The growing impacts of climate change, including more frequent extreme weather events and rising sea levels, are increasing the pressure on nations to act swiftly.

However, achieving the necessary emissions reductions will not be easy. Many countries still face significant barriers, including economic challenges, lack of infrastructure, and political resistance to climate action. Despite these challenges, COP29 represents an important opportunity to build momentum for a more effective and coordinated global response to climate change. If successful, it could pave the way for a fully operational Paris Agreement by the time COP30 convenes in Brazil, ensuring that the world is on track to meet its climate goals and avoid the worst impacts of global warming.