Copper Exchange Price Disparity Retreats in August

Copper Exchange Price Disparity Retreats as Market Resets

The copper exchange price disparity between Comex and the London Metal Exchange (LME) significantly narrowed in mid-August, signaling a reset in global copper pricing dynamics. Industry expert John Gross, editor of The Copper Journal, described the market as “dazed and confused” following a dramatic seven-month arbitrage event. From January to July 2025, Comex copper soared as traders braced for anticipated U.S. tariffs on inbound copper—a policy that ultimately never materialized.

As a result, Comex copper briefly commanded over $1 per pound more than its LME counterpart, creating one of the widest exchange price gaps in copper trading history. However, the price disparity has now reverted to more normalized levels, with a current difference of around 6 cents per pound. This dramatic turnaround underscores how geopolitical expectations can distort market fundamentals.

Copper Market Activity Strengthens on Both Sides of the Atlantic

Despite the price realignment, trading activity remained strong on the LME, partly fueled by the earlier arbitrage. According to LME data, July copper contract volume rose 5.2% year over year, reaching 167,501 lots. For the January through July 2025 period, copper trading volume rose 2.2% year-over-year to more than 635,000 metric tons—second only to aluminum, which saw over 1 billion metric tons traded.

Meanwhile, inventory flows shifted in response to pricing. Comex warehouse stocks increased by nearly 158,000 metric tons in 2025, although this remains modest compared to the 940,000 metric tons of cathode imports into the U.S. during the first half of the year. The arbitrage not only influenced spot prices but also affected physical inventories and global trade routes, further demonstrating the interconnectedness of global copper markets.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The rapid rise and fall of the copper exchange price disparity in 2025 offers a crucial lesson in market psychology and policy speculation. The expectation of U.S. tariffs—not their implementation—was enough to distort pricing and move physical inventories. Now, as pricing returns to a more balanced state, the market will likely shift focus back to core fundamentals like supply chain stability, renewable energy demand, and EV sector growth. Traders and producers should remain vigilant, as future policy announcements could again trigger sharp pricing reactions.