EU Antidumping Investigation Targets Cold Rolled Steel Imports

Antidumping Duties Threaten Steel Import Costs Across Europe

The European Commission has opened a fresh antidumping investigation into cold rolled steel imports from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, and Vietnam. Announced on September 18, the case follows a formal complaint from Eurofer and targets trade between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025. Provisional duties of up to 50% could take effect within seven months, sharply increasing import costs for European buyers.

This move intensifies existing trade tensions with Asian exporters. India, Japan, and Vietnam already face separate scrutiny under a hot rolled coil case. Importers now face dual uncertainty, with CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) taxes set to begin on January 1, 2026. Some suppliers are already quoting prices that factor in both potential antidumping duties and future carbon-related costs.

Cold Rolled Steel Import Volumes Decline as Safeguards Tighten

Steel import volumes into the EU are already declining amid revised safeguard measures. Between January and May 2025, cold rolled flat steel imports dropped 5%. New regulations implemented in April introduced 13% volume caps for several nations, significantly curbing market access. Among the five countries under investigation, only India holds a specific tariff-rate quota.

Collectively, these five nations supplied nearly 68% of EU cold rolled steel imports in 2024, totaling around 1.85 million tonnes. In Q3 2025, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, and Vietnam exceeded their allocated volume caps. As Q4 begins on October 1, many traders expect remaining quota volumes to be filled quickly—well ahead of the CBAM tax rollout. Estimated CBAM-related costs range from €40 to €70 per tonne, further tightening margins.

Meanwhile, weak demand continues to weigh on the market. Eurofer now expects a 0.9% decline in EU apparent steel consumption for 2025—marking the fourth straight year of contraction. Prices have mirrored demand trends, with cold rolled coil values dropping sharply in the first nine months of 2025. Although a slight rebound occurred after hitting lows in July, overall pricing remains under pressure.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The EU’s hardline trade policies aim to shield local mills from global oversupply. However, the dual burden of antidumping duties and upcoming CBAM enforcement is reshaping steel trade dynamics. Importers must now navigate tighter quotas, increased costs, and regulatory complexity. With Q4 demand uncertain and policy risks mounting, market participants should expect continued volatility through early 2026. Strategic planning and supply diversification will be critical.