Exporters Plan to Raise Prices on Black Sea Market Billets

Black Sea Billet Market Price Trends: A $2–$3 Increase Expected

The global square billet market showed mixed trends in October. Initially, weak market conditions, especially in China, resulted in negative sentiment. However, as the month progressed, a cautious upward trend emerged in most regional billet markets, supported by a recovery in Asia. The Black Sea billet market, which saw a $5 drop in prices to $433 per tonne (FOB), is now preparing for a price increase. Exporters are planning to raise prices by $2–$3 per tonne, bringing the average price to $443–$447 per tonne (FOB). This increase comes in response to a stronger ruble and rising costs of semi-finished products from China.

Factors Driving Billet Price Adjustments in Turkey and Beyond

Recent changes to Turkey’s Domestic Processing Regime (DIR) have significantly impacted demand for imported billets. The DIR mandates that at least 25% of the raw materials for production be sourced locally. As a result, demand for foreign billets has decreased slightly, though imports from China have surged. Turkey imported 327,900 tonnes of billets in September, marking a 13% year-on-year decline. However, China’s share of the market increased, with shipments from the country doubling in the same month.

Turkey’s domestic billet production has also risen. Local producers, such as Kardemir, saw a price increase of $8 per tonne for their billets. Local billet production increased by 8.6% year-on-year, reaching 2 million tonnes in September. Meanwhile, Turkey’s overall billet import volume has risen by 48% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with Asian suppliers capturing two-thirds of the market share. This shift reflects broader trends in global billet supply and demand, driven by domestic policy changes and international trade dynamics.

Global Trends: Mixed Sentiment and Regional Market Performance

Billet prices in other global markets have also seen volatility. In Tangshan, China, low sales of finished products and production suspensions due to environmental restrictions weighed on billet prices. However, by the end of the month, sentiment shifted positively due to production controls, better finished product sales, and recovery in steel futures. As a result, billet prices in Tangshan rose by $5 to $419 per tonne. Meanwhile, prices in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region held steady, with Saudi Arabia reporting higher prices due to product and scrap shortages.

In Europe, billet prices fluctuated, with Italy seeing a drop of $16 per tonne in October, ending the month at $562 per tonne. This price drop followed a slight increase earlier in the month, highlighting the volatile nature of the European billet market. Meanwhile, the global billet market’s overall stability continued, with regional price variations reflecting local supply and demand conditions.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The billet market remains highly sensitive to shifts in demand, currency fluctuations, and regional policies. In Turkey, the new DIR requirements are reshaping the country’s billet import landscape, with local production growing and Asian suppliers gaining ground. On a global scale, factors such as production suspensions in China and ongoing price adjustments by major exporters are contributing to a dynamic market environment. As the Black Sea market responds to a strengthening ruble and rising costs from China, we can expect continued volatility in the billet sector. Suppliers and buyers alike must remain vigilant to price movements and regional supply dynamics in the coming months.