Ferrous Pricing Trends Reflect Global and Domestic Steel Market Pressures

U.S. Ferrous Pricing Sees Minimal Gains Amid Steady Steel Demand

Ferrous pricing in the United States remained largely unchanged in August, reflecting both domestic market stability and international competition. According to the Raw Material Data Aggregation Service (RMDAS) by MSA Inc., prompt grade recycled steel prices did not move, while No. 1 heavy melting steel (HMS) edged up just $4 per ton. No. 2 shredded scrap saw a marginal $1 per ton gain. These figures suggest steady but cautious mill buying patterns, even as underlying steel production shows modest gains.

The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported that U.S. mills produced 1.774 million tons of steel for the week ending August 16, operating at 78.3% of capacity. This reflects a 2.8% increase compared to the same week in 2024. However, the figure marks a 1.4% decline from the prior week, when capacity utilization peaked at 79.5%. Year-to-date steel output is up 1.3%, a reassuring sign for scrap suppliers, though volatility remains.

Meanwhile, the global backdrop continues to exert downward pressure. The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) recorded a 1.3% year-on-year decline in July’s global crude steel production, with just over 150 million metric tons reported across 70 countries. Compared to June, output slipped by 0.86%, indicating persistent softness in global demand.

Global Billet and Slab Dynamics Challenge U.S. Scrap Exports

The international market for semi-finished steel is reshaping scrap demand in key export destinations like Turkey and India. While India’s steel production rose by 9.8% in the first seven months of 2025, and Turkey’s dipped by just 0.9%, both countries are increasingly turning to imported billet and slab rather than U.S. scrap.

Navigate Commodities reports that billet and slab shipments into Turkey spiked in June before easing slightly in July. However, Navigate’s Managing Director, Atilla Widnell, suggests that a rebound is likely as Chinese rebar prices decline. Traders in China, Indonesia, and Malaysia are aggressively offering competitively priced semi-finished products, undercutting the market for U.S. scrap.

This trend poses a significant challenge for American scrap processors. With Turkish rerolling mills favoring low-cost billet imports, U.S. recyclers may face declining export opportunities heading into September. The shift underscores the global nature of price pressure in ferrous markets, where domestic conditions alone no longer dictate trade flows.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Ferrous pricing in August underscores a complex equilibrium between steady domestic demand and weakening global competitiveness. The flat-to-marginal price gains in U.S. scrap reflect cautious mill buying in a market still digesting mixed production signals. On the export front, the influx of low-cost billet from Asia into Turkey and potentially India is reshaping traditional scrap trade flows. SuperMetalPrice expects this pressure to persist through Q3, with pricing traction for U.S. recyclers hinging on shifts in Chinese steel pricing and regional trade policy shifts. Traders should closely monitor billet flows and rebar benchmarks from Asia to anticipate next-quarter pricing pivots.