Fico and Zelenskyy Clash Over Russian Gas Transit: Slovakia Faces Economic Impact

Slovakia Opposes Ukraine’s Halt of Russian Gas Transit
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has escalated his dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, criticizing Ukraine’s decision to end the transit of Russian gas through its territory after 2024. Slovakia, which remains heavily dependent on Russian gas, imports it through pipelines that run through Ukraine. Fico warned that halting this transit would increase gas prices across Europe and cause significant economic damage to Slovakia and the wider European Union.

Fico emphasized the risk of higher gas prices, which would harm Slovakia’s economy, and questioned Ukraine’s approach, arguing that such a decision could lead to enormous financial repercussions for Europe. He also expressed concern over potential energy insecurity if the gas flow through Ukraine is completely cut off. Fico highlighted Slovakia’s reliance on the existing pipeline infrastructure, which, if disrupted, would cause a ripple effect on gas prices across Europe.

Zelenskyy’s Stance: Cutting Ties with Russian Gas
In response, Zelenskyy made it clear that Ukraine would not extend its transit agreement with Russia, calling on European nations to stop funding Russia’s war through gas sales. Zelenskyy suggested that Ukrainian authorities would not allow the transit of Russian gas unless European buyers agreed to withhold payments to Russia until the war ends, positioning this as a necessary step to avoid enabling Russia’s military actions. He argued that any country benefiting from cheap Russian gas would eventually become dependent on Russia, further prolonging the conflict.

While Fico dismissed Zelenskyy’s proposal to delay payments to Russia as “absurd,” he also reiterated Slovakia’s readiness to seek alternative gas sources, such as Azerbaijani gas. However, he emphasized that Slovakia would still face significant economic challenges from increased energy prices if the Russian gas flow is interrupted.

The Economic and Security Fallout of Gas Transit Cessation
Fico warned that halting the Russian gas transit could escalate the financial burden on Slovakia and the broader EU. He stressed that Slovakia is well-prepared with ample gas storage, but the potential for higher international gas prices and economic losses would persist as a result of the cessation of Russian gas supplies. Fico also voiced concerns about the security of the pipeline infrastructure within Ukraine, suggesting it could become a target for military action, particularly if gas transportation ceases.

The European Commission’s Position: Transitioning Away from Russian Gas
The European Commission has distanced itself from the dispute, emphasizing that the EU is committed to reducing reliance on Russian energy. A Commission spokesperson stated that it had no interest in renewing the transit contract between Ukraine and Gazprom, noting that alternative gas supplies, including LNG and non-Russian pipeline imports, can replace the 14 billion cubic meters of gas currently flowing through Ukraine. The Commission believes the impact on EU energy security will be minimal, as it has already planned for the transition away from Russian energy sources.

Strained Bilateral Relations: Fico’s Resistance to Military Aid and EU Sanctions
This ongoing clash between Fico and Zelenskyy is a continuation of their strained relationship, which has grown more contentious since Fico’s return to power in Slovakia in October 2023. Fico has consistently opposed providing military aid to Ukraine and has resisted the EU sanctions on Russia’s gas and nuclear energy sectors. His position underscores Slovakia’s broader shift away from the EU’s current stance on Russian energy.