Global green steel markets in 2026 face regulation, costs and regional divergence

Global green steel markets in 2026 enter a decisive transition

Global green steel markets in 2026 move from pilot projects to commercial reality.
Policy pressure, cost inflation, and certification demands now reshape producer strategies.
As a result, regional differences define competitiveness more clearly than before.

However, green steel still represents a niche share of global steel output.
Europe advances through regulation, while Asia focuses on cost efficiency and technology.
Meanwhile, the Middle East positions itself as a low-emissions supplier of steel and raw materials.

In contrast, the United States faces policy uncertainty amid shifting federal priorities.
State incentives and corporate demand now drive low-carbon steel adoption.
Together, these forces will shape green steel trade flows beyond 2026.

Global green steel markets in 2026: Europe faces CBAM pressure

Europe faces the strongest regulatory shock in global green steel markets in 2026.
The EU launches the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in January 2026.
CBAM forces precise emissions accounting across Scope 1, Scope 2, and increasingly Scope 3.

Therefore, loose green branding and mass-balance claims lose credibility.
Producers must meet strict emissions thresholds to avoid rising carbon costs.
Certification initiatives like LESS and Responsible Steel gain strategic importance.

Meanwhile, European green steel premiums remain stable but constrained.
Green flat steel premiums continue trading within a narrow and elevated range.
High electricity prices and raw material shortages continue to pressure margins.

Regional divergence defines competitiveness beyond Europe

The Middle East-North Africa region holds structural advantages in green steel production.
EAF-based mills, abundant gas, and strong solar potential reduce emissions intensity.
However, product mismatches limit access to Europe’s flat steel demand.

China continues advancing green steel production and export readiness.
Producers such as HBIS Group and Baowu Steel already supply low-carbon steel products.
Yet CBAM default emissions values raise costs for Chinese exports to Europe.

In the United States, green steel momentum weakens under reduced federal support.
EAF dominance keeps emissions comparatively low, but green premiums remain absent.
As a result, fragmented policies slow nationwide decarbonization progress.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Global green steel markets in 2026 represent a critical sorting phase.
Regulation now rewards verified emissions reductions rather than marketing narratives.
Regions with clean energy access, scrap availability, and credible certification will gain advantage.
SuperMetalPrice expects CBAM to accelerate trade realignment and strategic steel investment.