Mixed Trends in the Global Hot-Rolled Coil Market
The global hot-rolled coil market showed divergent movements in August 2025, reflecting regional economic and regulatory factors. In Europe, prices increased by 2-7% due to anticipation of new trade restrictions and the CBAM mechanism coming in 2026. Major producers like ArcelorMittal raised base prices, aiming to consolidate market gains. However, weak demand from automotive and construction sectors kept the market cautious. Many buyers had already secured cheaper volumes from Asia and Turkey earlier in the summer. As a result, the actual market activity was limited despite price hikes.
Meanwhile, in the United States, the hot-rolled coil market faced a downward trend with prices dropping by 2.8%. Leading producers such as Nucor and California Steel Industries lowered their prices in response to weak demand and oversupply. Seasonal slowdowns in business and short order fulfillment times contributed to the price pressure. Although some optimism exists for a pickup in purchasing in September and October, prices are expected to hover around $930 per ton in the near term.
Hot-Rolled Coil Market Outlook: Focus on Europe
The European hot-rolled coil market outlook centers on regulatory impacts and inventory management. The European Commission’s expected protective measures and CBAM mechanism will reduce import pressures and help stabilize prices. However, large summer-imported stocks will delay a strong recovery. The real revival in demand is anticipated in October and November when buyers start preparing for 2026 contracts. Despite the regulatory optimism, price fluctuations will likely continue due to uneven demand and existing stock levels.
In China, hot-rolled coil prices remained stable, with a slight 1% decline to $490 per ton. The market faced pressure from growing inventories and weak exports, even though futures dynamics provided some price support. Seasonal restocking and limited domestic demand will offer minor upward support. Still, high stock levels and cautious buyers are expected to keep prices steady around current levels in the short term.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
The global hot-rolled coil market continues to reflect contrasting regional dynamics shaped by regulatory, economic, and seasonal factors. Europe’s price increase highlights the influence of trade policies like the CBAM, emphasizing the rising role of sustainability in metals trade. Meanwhile, the US market signals caution amid oversupply and demand softness, common in seasonal slowdowns. China’s stable pricing underlines the ongoing challenges of inventory management and export uncertainties. For metals market participants, closely watching these regional trends is essential, as they signal shifting supply-demand balances and regulatory impacts that will shape pricing and investment strategies into 2026.
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