Overview of Global Rebar Market Dynamics
The global rebar market experienced significant pressure in June 2025, driven by declining scrap prices and weak demand across key regions. While the US market saw an uptick in prices, European, Turkish, and Chinese markets faced downward price adjustments. The persistent global economic uncertainty and seasonal slowdowns in construction activities have been central to the evolving dynamics of rebar pricing.
Turkey: Struggling Amid Low Demand and Financial Constraints
In Turkey, the rebar market saw a 0.8% decline in prices during the first half of June, dropping to $543.75/t FOB. Key factors contributing to this decline include low domestic and export demand, macroeconomic difficulties, and high interest rates. Notably, demand from critical markets like Europe and the Middle East remained subdued. While Turkish sales to regions such as Syria and Northern Cyprus showed slight growth, they were not enough to offset the broader global demand slump.
In the domestic market, financial constraints, coupled with the Eid al-Adha holiday period, led to hesitancy among wholesalers and buyers. Scrapping high scrap prices and importing billet steel from Asia rather than relying on domestic production were other factors impacting Turkish mills. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Turkish economy, demand remains weak, with price dynamics expected to stay restrained.
EU: Continued Price Decline Amid Weak Demand
The rebar market in the European Union also faced downward pricing pressure in June 2025. Northern Europe saw the largest price drop of 3.8%, with prices reaching €625/t ex-works, the lowest level since March. In Italy, prices dropped by 1.9%, settling at €515/t ex-works. Weak demand, particularly from the private residential construction sector, and a correction in scrap prices played pivotal roles in this decline.
The market was further pressured by low buyer activity in Germany, where rebar prices fell below €400/t for base values. Despite some growth in infrastructure sector demand, consumers remained cautious due to market uncertainty. The competition among European suppliers, along with an influx of cheaper imports from countries like Algeria, Turkey, and Spain, has intensified price pressure. The market remains volatile, with a possible upward correction if scrap prices stabilize or infrastructure demand increases.
US: Rebar Prices Surge Amid Tariffs and Producer Actions
In stark contrast to the global trend, the US rebar market saw a noticeable 8.5% price rise in June 2025, reaching $914.9/t. The surge can be attributed to the doubling of steel import tariffs under Section 232, which saw major producers like Steel Dynamics, CMC, Gerdau, and Nucor increasing their prices by $60 to $100 per ton. This policy change, combined with delays in anti-dumping investigations and seasonal fluctuations in demand, resulted in rising prices for both domestic and imported rebar.
Despite this price hike, demand in the US remains unstable. Commercial and residential construction are showing signs of weakness, largely due to high interest rates and financing difficulties. However, infrastructure projects, particularly road construction, are providing some support to the market. The US market is expected to stabilize within the current price range as trade policy, scrap demand, and seasonal factors remain influential.
China: Price Stability Amid Weak Demand
In China, rebar prices increased slightly by 0.5%, reaching $413.9/t FOT. This minor price adjustment occurred despite the overall weakness in demand and a seasonal slowdown in construction activity. Heavy rains in the south and high temperatures in the north further limited transactions. The market has remained under pressure, with buyers purchasing only what was necessary due to cautious market sentiment.
Despite weak demand, Chinese producers have not reduced production significantly. Blast furnace profitability remains positive, thanks to lower coke and coal prices, allowing mills to maintain production levels. However, larger mills such as Shagang and Yonggang have kept prices stable while offering subsidies to buyers. Without a notable recovery in demand or government stimulus, China’s rebar market is expected to remain sluggish in the near future.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
The global rebar market is under significant pressure as declining scrap prices and weak demand weigh heavily on prices. While the US market benefits from protective tariffs, other key markets such as Turkey, the EU, and China face continued challenges. The dynamics of the market reflect broader economic uncertainties and seasonal demand fluctuations. The future trajectory of rebar prices will largely depend on shifts in global demand, the impact of tariffs, and economic policies in major steel-producing regions.
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