
Global Steel Output Declines in June 2025
Steel production across 70 reporting countries fell sharply in June 2025, according to the World Steel Association (Worldsteel). The total global steel output reached 151.4 million metric tons (mmt), marking a 5.8% year-on-year decrease. On a monthly basis, production dropped by 4.8%, highlighting continued industry headwinds.
China, the world’s largest steelmaker, saw its output slide by 9.2% year-over-year and 3.9% month-over-month, reflecting broader economic pressures and potential oversupply corrections. This slowdown may benefit India and the United States, which posted strong gains. India increased output by 13.3% year-on-year, while U.S. production grew by 4.6%, positioning both as potential market stabilizers.
Meanwhile, Germany and Russia remain under economic stress. Germany’s steel production declined 15.9%, while Russia saw an estimated 7.4% fall. Turkey, heavily reliant on electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, also recorded a 3.5% year-on-year decline and a 6.4% drop month-on-month, signaling persistent regional softness.
India’s Rise and China’s Retreat Reshape Global Steel Output
India’s surge in steel production positions it as a strong counterweight to China’s waning dominance. With China’s global steel output decline reshaping the market, Indian producers are seizing momentum. The expansion presents an opportunity for steel scrap exporters and raw material traders across the U.S. and Europe, who now face a more diversified demand landscape.
Brazil joined India as one of only two top-ten producers to register a monthly increase. In contrast, output fell in Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Germany, showing a widespread global contraction. Iran’s sharp 35.3% month-over-month drop underscores regional volatility that could influence billet and long product prices.
These developments offer key insights for steel manufacturers, commodity investors, and policy analysts. The reshaping of global capacity due to shifting production in Asia and the West could have lasting price and trade policy implications.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
The latest data marks a turning point in global steel dynamics. With China’s retreat from its dominant production role, countries like India and the U.S. are stepping up. This could rebalance international trade flows and relieve some pricing pressure from global markets. However, sluggish performance in Europe, Russia, and Turkey suggests the overall recovery remains uneven. Watch for how sustained output growth in India and the U.S. might reshape scrap demand and ferrous futures in the coming months.
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