Month-on-Month Drop in Global Steel Output
Global steel production in November 2024, based on data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), reached 146.8 million metric tons (Mmt), marking a 0.8% increase compared to November 2023. However, the month-on-month comparison shows a decline of nearly 3.5% from October 2024. This reduction signals a global slowdown in steel production as the year draws to a close, with several major steel-producing countries experiencing a drop in output.
Declining Output Across Major Producers
China, the largest steel producer globally, saw a 2.5% year-on-year increase in November, but its output dropped by 3.5 Mmt (about 4.3%) compared to October. This reduction is part of a broader global trend, with Russia also reporting a decrease in output, down by 100,000 metric tons from October. Brazil, another major steel producer, faced a more significant drop of 300,000 metric tons, or a 9.5% reduction.
Other Countries Report Slowdowns
Other countries followed suit with output slowdowns in November. Mills in India, a significant steel producer, also reported a reduction of 100,000 metric tons in production compared to October. In the United States, production fell by 200,000 metric tons in November, continuing the downward trend in steel output across several major markets. However, Turkey’s production remained stable at 3 million metric tons, holding steady compared to the previous month.
2024 Year-to-Date Trends: A Negative Outlook for Global Steel Production
As of November 2024, global steel production is down by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2023. Despite some positive growth in certain countries, such as Turkey, which saw an 11% increase in steel output, other countries like Russia have experienced more significant declines. Russia’s output is projected to fall by 7% in 2024 compared to the previous year, reflecting the broader global slowdown.
China’s Steel Output Slows Year-to-Date
While China has reduced its output by 2.7% year-to-date in 2024, it continues to dominate global steel production, accounting for nearly 55% of the world’s total steel output. Despite this, Fitch Ratings forecasts flat steel demand for China in 2025, with manufacturing and infrastructure projects driving some demand, while the contraction of the property sector is expected to be less severe. Steel output in China is expected to remain restricted, with a slight decline projected for 2025.
Outlook for 2025: China’s Role and Global Steel Market Impact
Looking ahead to 2025, analysts are closely monitoring China’s steel production. While the country is expected to maintain disciplined production levels, concerns over global oversupply persist, especially given China’s continued dominance in the sector. The question remains how much China will reduce its output, as excess steel production capacity continues to pressure markets worldwide.
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