India manganese alloy outlook 2026 darkened by EU quotas and carbon costs

India manganese alloy outlook 2026 faces EU trade restrictions

India manganese alloy outlook 2026 is under pressure from European Union safeguards and carbon costs. New quotas cut potential shipments to Europe by nearly half.

Europe accounts for around 40% of India’s ferro-alloy exports. In 2025, only 438,091 tonnes reached the EU, down from 461,963 tonnes in 2024.

Exporters now struggle to redirect roughly 300,000–400,000 tonnes. Limited alternative markets intensify oversupply, create price pressure, and threaten smaller smelters’ margins.

Carbon costs and market disruption impact pricing

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) adds 5–10% to landed costs of Indian manganese alloys. This makes Indian exports more expensive unless producers invest in low-emission technology.

Indian silico-manganese prices fell to $780–800/t fob in December 2025, down from $840–860/t fob earlier. Ferro-manganese dropped to $895–910/t from $930–940/t fob. Traders anticipate further 5–10% declines in early 2026.

Market uncertainty may force smaller producers to cut output or suspend operations. Larger firms aim to redirect shipments to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, but these markets cannot absorb Europe’s volume.

India manganese alloy outlook 2026 and strategic adaptation

Exporters may delay shipments to comply with quotas, creating irregular supply flows. Price instability is likely in the first half of 2026. Companies must explore new markets, alternative alloy grades, and cost-control measures to stay competitive.

Absent production adjustments or new demand centers, India’s manganese alloy market risks weaker prices, higher inventories, and limited export visibility throughout 2026.

 

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

India manganese alloy exporters face a pivotal 2026. Quotas, carbon costs, and oversupply challenge profitability. Strategic investments in low-carbon production and diversification into alternative markets will determine which smelters survive and which struggle.