Indian Domestic Rebar Demand Rises Amid US–Iran Conflict

Indian Domestic Rebar Demand Rises Amid US–Iran Conflict

Indian domestic rebar demand increased sharply after the escalation of the US–Iran conflict. Buyers moved quickly to restock scrap-based rebar across key markets. The conflict began on 28 February and immediately disrupted market sentiment.

Steel buyers anticipated further price increases. As a result, traders accelerated purchases over the weekend. Scrap-based producers saw stronger orders after weeks of slow activity.

Energy prices rose rapidly during the conflict. Brent crude futures surged by 13 percent in a single day. Higher energy costs directly increased steelmaking expenses across India.

Rising Input Costs Push Rebar Prices Higher

Manufacturers raised rebar prices as production costs climbed. A producer in Jalna, Maharashtra increased base rebar prices to Rs45,500 per tonne. Two days earlier, the same material sold for Rs43,700 per tonne.

Input costs for scrap-based steelmaking increased by Rs1,700 per tonne in two days. Consequently, prices for 12mm rebar in Jalna rose by about Rs1,000 per tonne since the conflict started.

Meanwhile, billet prices also strengthened in northern India. Producers in Mandi-Gobindgarh increased billet offers to Rs44,000 per tonne ex-works. The price stood at Rs42,800 per tonne only one week earlier.

US–Iran Conflict Threatens DRI Supply to India

The US–Iran conflict may disrupt direct-reduced iron supply to India’s west coast. Iranian DRI shipments play a growing role in scrap-based steel production.

Indian mills increased DRI imports from the Middle East during mid-2025. Producers used DRI to reduce dependence on expensive scrap feedstock.

However, rising geopolitical tensions may limit shipments from Iran. Market participants fear supply disruptions if shipping routes face restrictions.

Major integrated steelmakers already increased prices for hot-rolled coil and rebar. Mills lifted prices by Rs1,000–1,500 per tonne at the start of March. Producers cited rising energy costs as a key driver.

Retail suppliers responded quickly to these increases. Cut-to-length steel now trades near Rs55,000 per tonne ex-Mumbai. Meanwhile, the domestic HRC benchmark reached Rs53,500 per tonne ex-Mumbai in late February.

Short-term demand slowed slightly due to the Holi festival. However, market participants expect shipments to rise again after the holiday.

Export Uncertainty Adds Pressure to Steel Markets

The US–Iran conflict also threatens India’s steel export flows. Shipping companies now avoid routes through the Strait of Hormuz due to safety concerns.

One Indian steel service center already suspended shipments to the UAE. Maritime security risks forced shipping companies to halt certain cargo movements.

The UAE represents a key export destination for Indian finished steel. Shipments to the UAE rose 20 percent year-on-year to 424,700 tonnes. This volume covers the first ten months of the April 2025–March 2026 financial year.

Indian exporters rely more heavily on Middle East markets today. Sales to the European Union slowed due to trade barriers and carbon regulations.

If exports decline further, mills may redirect more steel to the domestic market. Consequently, additional supply could pressure hot-rolled coil prices later in March.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The US–Iran conflict has quickly shifted sentiment across the Indian steel market. Rising energy prices and potential DRI supply disruptions create immediate cost pressure for scrap-based producers. At the same time, export risks could redirect supply toward domestic buyers. If geopolitical tensions persist, Indian domestic rebar demand may remain strong while steel price volatility increases.