Iron Ore Market Fluctuates Within Local Lows Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Iron Ore Market Overview and Price Dynamics

Iron ore prices have hovered near local lows since early October, reflecting a mix of stable demand and geopolitical pressures. On the Singapore Exchange, November futures trade around $105 per ton, while Dalian January futures range between $109 and $110 per ton. Prices slightly declined by mid-October, with $109.55/t in Dalian and $105.1/t in Singapore, down 0.5% and 0.2% respectively compared to September 30. The early October lull coincided with China’s Golden Week holiday, which usually slows spot market activity. After the holiday, prices briefly rebounded amid increased restocking and record imports, with China purchasing 116.3 million tons in September, up 11.7% year-on-year.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Pressures Impacting Iron Ore Prices

Despite steady fundamentals, geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions between the US and China weighed heavily on the market. Investor sentiment weakened as fears of escalating conflicts grew, leading prices back down to early October levels. Additionally, related market corrections, especially falling pig iron prices in Tangshan, added pressure. However, China’s pig iron production only declined slightly, and blast furnace utilization remains sufficient. Port stockpiles grew while plant reserves gradually decreased, setting the stage for renewed buying activity. These factors limit the scope for further price drops despite ongoing external pressures.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The iron ore market remains fragile amid external geopolitical and economic uncertainties. China’s robust demand and infrastructure projects provide essential support. However, trade conflicts could continue to cap price recovery. Close monitoring of steel production and export trends will be critical for anticipating price movements. For now, prices are likely to fluctuate within current ranges unless new disruptions emerge.