Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate Amid Market Uncertainty in September 2025

Iron Ore Prices Show Modest Gains in September

Iron ore prices exhibited volatility throughout September 2025, reflecting a complex balance between supply constraints and fluctuating demand. Prices for January contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange saw an increase of 2.7%, reaching $113.04 per ton by September 26, compared to the end of August. On the Singapore Exchange, September contracts rose by 2%, settling at $105.6 per ton. Despite the fluctuations, the overall market trend was positive, driven by various external factors and internal market conditions.

Supply Disruptions and Demand Fluctuations Impact Prices

Several key factors influenced iron ore prices throughout the month. Early in September, concerns about potential delays in the Simandou mining project in Guinea created market uncertainty, leading to a slight price increase. Supply constraints from the anticipated delays combined with the resumption of pig iron production in China boosted demand for iron ore. Additionally, Chinese steel mills’ restocking efforts ahead of the National Day holidays provided temporary support for the market.

However, as the month progressed, market dynamics grew more unpredictable. Mid-month rumors surrounding potential steel production restrictions in Tangshan dampened market sentiment, signaling a possible reduction in ore demand. Moreover, China’s weak construction sector performance further pressured prices. As construction is a key consumer of rebar and rolled products, any downturn in this area impacts iron ore prices significantly.

External Influences Add Uncertainty

External factors further contributed to market instability. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates in September failed to offer significant relief to commodity markets, as participants had already priced in the effects of monetary policy easing. Additionally, rising global trade tensions, including potential tariffs on Chinese and Indian products, added to the uncertainty. As September came to a close, market activity slowed significantly in anticipation of China’s Golden Week holiday, reducing spot prices as mills completed their purchases before September 25.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Looking ahead, the iron ore market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by both supply-side disruptions and fluctuating demand from major steel producers like China. While there may be a temporary recovery in demand post-holidays, the ongoing macroeconomic weakness in China and the potential for increased global supply could dampen any significant price increases. Analysts predict iron ore prices will remain in the range of $80-100 per ton over the next 12-18 months, primarily due to weak demand and ample supply in the market. Traders and producers alike will need to keep a close eye on any changes in global economic conditions and regulatory policies that could further impact the market.