Iron Ore Prices Recover After Fluctuations in November
Iron ore prices saw significant fluctuations in November 2025 but managed to recover by the end of the month. By November 27, January iron ore contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange reached $112.92 per tonne, up 0.5% from October 31. However, earlier in the month, prices had dropped as low as $106.8 per tonne. Similarly, on the Singapore Exchange, December offers rose by 0.6% to $106.85 per tonne after dipping to $101.6 per tonne, marking the lowest levels since mid-July.
Market Volatility Driven by Mixed Supply and Demand Signals
November began with increased volatility due to mixed market signals. Chinese steel mills had limited activity due to ongoing production restrictions. This created short-term instability in the market. At the same time, rising port stocks and high inventory levels in China put further pressure on iron ore prices. Additionally, the commissioning of the Simandou project in Guinea and increased supplies from Rio Tinto sparked expectations of a medium-term supply boost, adding to market uncertainty.
Recovery Signs as Market Sentiment Improves
From November 12 onward, iron ore prices began to recover. Optimistic expectations about China’s monetary policy and new incentives in infrastructure and industry helped support prices. Futures contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and the Singapore Exchange rose, signaling a rebound in market sentiment. Despite high port inventories, market confidence improved.
The Role of Chinese Steel Mills in Stabilizing the Market
The behavior of Chinese steel mills was crucial to stabilizing prices. Postponed maintenance schedules and relaxed environmental regulations kept pig iron production stable, preventing further price drops. Additionally, reports about possible changes to port storage policies in China could impact the market. Limiting long-term storage and offering incentives to state-owned enterprises could shift the supply-demand balance, particularly in the spot market.
Stable Outlook Moving Into December
By the end of November, the market showed relative stability. From November 26 to 27, prices remained high, supported by limited liquidity and a positive market sentiment. Although demand typically weakens during this time, iron ore prices showed moderate recovery. As we move into December, prices are expected to remain near October levels, with a slight increase. Stable production in China will help support this stability, even as seasonal demand for steel declines and scheduled plant shutdowns affect production.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
The iron ore market is balancing supply pressures and steady demand from China. November’s fluctuations were significant, but the market showed resilience with a modest recovery. Key factors like Chinese steel mill production schedules, new supply projects, and port storage policy changes could influence prices in early 2026. While seasonal demand weakens, the market is expected to remain stable. However, any surprises in the global supply chain could lead to shifts in pricing.
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