Iron ore prices may fall to $94 per tonne in 2026, consensus forecast shows

Iron ore prices may fall to $94 per tonne in 2026 amid shifting fundamentals

Iron ore prices may fall to $94 per tonne in 2026 due to changing global supply trends.
Leading analysts expect the average China price to drop 7% from 2025 levels.
Consequently, the forecast points to $94 per tonne versus $101 per tonne in 2025.

Major banks and mining companies show a wide forecast range.
Citi projects prices near $85 per tonne, while Vale sees $100 per tonne.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects $93 per tonne, aligning with current futures.

Notably, Singapore Exchange futures for December 2026 trade near $95 per tonne.
Therefore, market pricing already reflects a bearish long-term outlook.

China steel demand and Simandou drive iron ore price pressure

China steel demand remains the main downside risk for iron ore markets.
Steel consumption in China continues to stagnate despite seasonal recoveries.
As a result, iron ore demand lacks strong structural support.

Meanwhile, Guinea’s Simandou project will reshape global iron ore supply.
The project will add 20 million tonnes of low-cost, high-grade ore.
Therefore, new supply will intensify competition among exporters.

In addition, China plans to introduce steel export licensing in January 2026.
This policy may reduce steel output and iron ore imports.
Consequently, prices could fall toward $90 per tonne in late 2026.

Ukraine exporters face margin pressure from falling iron ore prices

Iron ore prices may fall to $94 per tonne in 2026 with serious regional impacts.
For Ukraine, this level sits near the industry break-even point.
Thus, exporters face rising margin pressure if prices weaken further.

Official data shows Ukraine cut iron ore exports by 4.9% year on year.
Exports reached 28.8 million tonnes during January to November 2025.
Meanwhile, China absorbed 15.3 million tonnes, showing strong dependence.

However, export revenues fell 14% to $2.2 billion over the same period.
Lower prices, rather than volumes, drove the revenue decline.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Iron ore prices may fall to $94 per tonne in 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand.
Simandou will likely reset cost curves across the iron ore market.
Meanwhile, China policy risks limit upside price recovery.
We expect higher volatility and sharper regional margin divergence.
Therefore, low-cost producers will gain strategic advantage in 2026.