Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire: Fragile Yet Likely to Hold Despite Violations

The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which was brokered on November 27, remains fragile but is expected to hold, analysts suggest. While there have been repeated violations, the agreement has held for over a month, though it is unlikely to meet all of its conditions by the January deadline.

Key Terms of the Ceasefire Agreement

The ceasefire requires Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon, and for Israel to withdraw its military forces from the area within 60 days. The control of the region is supposed to be handed over to the Lebanese Army and UN peacekeepers. Despite this, Israel has only pulled out of two towns, and it continues airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions.

Violations and Accusations from Both Sides

Israel and Lebanon have each accused the other of violating the ceasefire. Israel has accused Hezbollah of continuing rocket attacks and moving weapons, while Lebanon has filed a complaint with the UN Security Council accusing Israel of over 800 airstrikes, further complicating the situation in southern Lebanon. These continued attacks have hampered the Lebanese Army’s ability to enforce the ceasefire.

Challenges in Meeting the 60-Day Deadline

As the 60-day deadline approaches, Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected. Israel has cited security concerns about the readiness of the Lebanese Army to take control of the areas from which Israel has withdrawn. Lebanon, on the other hand, argues that they are waiting for Israel to fully pull out before deploying their forces. Hezbollah has stated that if Israel remains in the area past the deadline, it may resume hostilities.

Impact of Hezbollah’s Weakened Position

Despite the continued violations, analysts suggest that the ceasefire is more likely to hold due to Hezbollah’s weakened state. The group has lost significant resources over the course of the war, including its critical supply lines, especially following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Hezbollah, therefore, is unlikely to restart full-scale hostilities, as its capabilities have been significantly diminished.

Strategic and Political Implications

Although both sides have violated the ceasefire, analysts point out that the ceasefire offers hope for displaced families in both Israel and Lebanon. However, the final outcome hinges on whether both sides can adhere to the terms of the agreement. The flexibility of the agreement and its ambiguous provisions might allow it to survive despite changing circumstances.