LME shadow stocks reveal nickel gluts and zinc deficits

LME shadow stocks reshape signals across base metals

LME shadow stocks now offer clearer insight into real metal availability.
Off-warrant inventory highlights supply trends hidden from headline exchange data.
As a result, traders gain stronger signals across nickel, aluminum, copper, and zinc.

Nickel prices fell sharply after a massive delivery hit LME registered stocks.
However, off-warrant stockpiles in Singapore and Kaohsiung already signaled oversupply.
Therefore, the price retreat reflected inventory reality rather than sudden weakness.

Lead shows a similar pattern of excess availability.
Financiers continue to rotate lead stocks through Singapore warehouses.
Meanwhile, off-warrant lead inventory surged, pushing total stocks to decade highs.

Nickel glut and aluminum deficit define diverging trends

LME shadow stocks confirm nickel as the most oversupplied base metal.
Total nickel inventory jumped nearly 58% during 2025.
December off-warrant inflows foreshadowed January’s registered stock surge.

Aluminum tells a contrasting story despite warehouse churn.
Off-warrant aluminum stocks fell by more than half last year.
Consequently, total inventory dropped to the lowest level since mid-2022.
This tightening supported aluminum prices above $3,100 per ton.

Copper, zinc, tin, and cobalt add complexity

Copper stocks declined on the LME but shifted toward US warehouses.
Tariff arbitrage pulled metal into CME storage instead.
Therefore, falling LME stocks overstate global copper tightness.

Zinc moved from scarcity toward balance after severe midyear depletion.
Heavy late-year deliveries suggest a surplus outlook for 2026.
Tin stocks rose quietly despite strong prices driven by supply fears.

Cobalt activity highlights the value of transparency.
Off-warrant cobalt stocks far exceed registered volumes.
Thus, shadow reporting restored confidence after the 2022 nickel crisis.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

LME shadow stocks now act as a critical pricing compass for metals markets.
They reveal structural gluts and deficits that headline data often obscures.
Nickel oversupply may cap rallies, while aluminum retains upside support.
Looking ahead, zinc and copper shifts will shape 2026 price volatility.