Milanović Leads Croatian Presidential Election with Potential for First-Round Victory

Zoran Milanović, Croatia‘s incumbent president, is poised to secure re-election in the first round of voting, according to early exit polls. Milanović, from the left-leaning political spectrum, has a commanding lead, surpassing 50% of the vote, while his main rival, Dragan Primorac of the conservative HDZ party, lags far behind at 22%.

Pre-Election Polls and Milanović’s Strong Performance
In a poll conducted by Ipsos and released immediately after voting, Milanović is shown to have secured a clear majority, making a second round of voting unnecessary. Milanović, who has previously served as Croatia’s prime minister, expressed his gratitude to voters via social media. The final official results are still pending, but Milanović’s overwhelming lead signals a likely first-round victory. This would be a significant achievement for Milanović, whose political career has been marked by outspoken stances on global issues.

Political Context and Controversies
Milanović’s presidency has been marked by contentious foreign policy positions, particularly his critical stance on Western military support for Ukraine in its ongoing war with Russia. He has drawn comparisons to former U.S. President Donald Trump due to his combative communication style and his criticisms of both local and international political figures. Milanović has often clashed with Croatia’s current Prime Minister, Andrej Plenković, and has expressed concerns over NATO and EU involvement in Ukraine, insisting that Croatia should not take sides.

Milanović has also blocked Croatian participation in NATO-led missions in Ukraine, stating that “no Croatian soldier will take part in somebody else’s war.”

Primorac’s Campaign and Western Orientation
Primorac, a member of the ruling conservative HDZ party, has positioned himself as the candidate of Croatia’s future in the West, emphasizing the country’s role in the EU and NATO. His campaign has largely centered around the notion of a unified Croatia with strong international alliances, contrasting sharply with Milanović’s more isolationist rhetoric. Primorac has labeled Milanović “pro-Russian,” claiming that his leadership would endanger Croatia’s international relationships.

However, Primorac’s campaign has faced setbacks, notably due to a major corruption scandal involving the health minister, which has negatively affected the HDZ party’s image. Despite these challenges, Primorac has campaigned on the need for unity, a stronger global positioning for Croatia, and domestic peace.

Corruption Scandal and Ongoing Political Divisions
The corruption scandal involving the Croatian health minister, which has dominated the political debate in recent weeks, has been a significant issue in the election. Primorac has sought to present himself as a unifier in the face of these challenges, while Milanović has maintained his combative approach toward the political establishment.

The Croatian election has thus become a referendum not only on Milanović’s leadership but also on the broader political direction the country will take—between aligning more with the West under Primorac or maintaining a more neutral, often critical, stance as advocated by Milanović.

Croatia’s Electoral Landscape in 2023
This election is the third major vote in Croatia this year, following the parliamentary elections in April and the European Parliament elections in June. With ongoing political battles and growing concerns over corruption, the election is seen as a pivotal moment in Croatia’s political trajectory, particularly concerning its relationship with the EU, NATO, and its stance on international conflicts.