The global nickel market is set to face a significant surplus in 2025, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). The Lisbon-based organization forecasts a 198,000 metric ton surplus, based on rising supply and moderate demand growth.
Nickel production continues to expand in Indonesia and China, despite uncertainties in mining policy and delays in project permits. According to the INSG’s April meeting summary, multiple nickel product types—including nickel pig iron (NPI), mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), nickel matte, nickel cathode, and nickel sulphate—are expected to post strong production gains next year.
Indonesia and China Drive Output Growth
Indonesia remains the world’s top nickel producer, with increasing investments in NPI and HPAL operations. Despite permitting delays, Indonesia’s output across several nickel forms will grow in 2025. Similarly, China will ramp up production of nickel cathode and nickel sulphate. However, China’s NPI output is expected to decline due to cost and efficiency challenges.
The INSG projects total primary nickel production to rise from 3.526 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024 to 3.735 mmt in 2025. This growth continues a steady year-on-year increase from 3.363 mmt in 2023.
Demand Growth Slows Amid Battery Market Shift
On the demand side, the INSG highlights moderate increases in stainless steel output and changes in the electric vehicle (EV) battery market. Worldstainless reports a 5% rise in global stainless steel production in early 2024 compared to the previous year, supporting nickel demand.
However, demand from the battery sector has not met prior expectations. The growing popularity of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and plug-in hybrid EVs has limited the need for nickel-heavy chemistries. Still, new ternary precursor cathode active material (pCAM) projects could lift long-term demand.
The INSG estimates global nickel consumption to reach 3.537 mmt in 2025. This figure falls short of supply, resulting in the forecasted 198,000-ton surplus. The market already saw a combined surplus of 350,000 tons over the past two years, indicating a continued oversupply trend.
As nickel continues to play a vital role in stainless steel and battery technologies, SuperMetalPrice will monitor developments in production and consumption closely. Traders, manufacturers, and investors should remain alert to policy changes and shifts in global demand.
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