Nonferrous markets start 2026 in dramatic fashion as copper and aluminum swing

Nonferrous markets start 2026 with sharp price volatility

Nonferrous markets start 2026 with extreme price swings across copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel.
Copper prices approached record highs on Comex during mid-January before retreating quickly.
Meanwhile, aluminum, zinc, and nickel followed similar upward moves before losing momentum.

Market participants now expect continued volatility based on patterns seen throughout 2025.
Traders continue to monitor arbitrage between Comex and the London Metal Exchange closely.
As a result, pricing signals remain unstable across global nonferrous supply chains.

An executive from a Midwest-based scrap processor described last year’s copper movements as seismic.
He linked the volatility directly to Section 232 tariff announcements and implementation.
Those tariffs reshaped U.S. copper pricing dynamics almost overnight.

Section 232 tariffs reshape copper and aluminum trade flows

Section 232 tariffs triggered major distortions between U.S. and international copper prices.
When authorities excluded copper cathode, Comex copper prices fell rapidly.
Consequently, the Comex-LME arbitrage narrowed from nearly $1 per pound in July.

Recycled copper prices remain strong, supporting steady inflows into scrap yards.
However, winter weather threatens collection volumes despite favorable pricing.
Even so, the processor expects higher copper scrap flows than in 2025.

Global demand for copper scrap remains healthy, although U.S. demand shows weakness.
Domestic consumers currently pay wider spreads than overseas buyers.
Therefore, exporters ship more bare bright No. 1 copper to India, Japan, and South Korea.

Aluminum premiums surge while scrap struggles

Aluminum markets tell a different story under Section 232 tariffs.
Bruce Shapiro of Shapiro Metals highlighted a sharp Midwest premium increase.
The premium climbed from forty cents to nearly one dollar per pound.

Higher LME aluminum prices also pushed premiums upward.
As a result, prime aluminum prices rose every month since May.
However, primary aluminum scrap suffered from oversupply conditions.

Secondary aluminum prices remained flat throughout the year.
Meanwhile, operational disruptions worsened scrap availability.
Fires at Novelis’ Oswego facility reduced recycled material inflows significantly.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Nonferrous markets start 2026 with fragile balance and heightened geopolitical sensitivity.
Tariffs continue to distort price discovery and redirect global scrap flows.
Copper exports may rise further as domestic buyers lose pricing leverage.
Meanwhile, aluminum premiums could stay elevated despite weak scrap fundamentals.
Strategic sourcing and flexible logistics will define winners in 2026’s metals market.