Nucor Projects Lower Q3 2025 Earnings Amid Scrap and Steel Margin Pressure

Nucor Expects Lower Q3 Profits Despite Year-over-Year Growth

Nucor Corporation, one of the largest steelmakers and metals recyclers in North America, has issued Q3 2025 guidance forecasting a notable drop in earnings per share (EPS) compared to Q2. The Charlotte-based company expects EPS in the range of $2.05 to $2.15, down roughly 20% from the $2.60 reported last quarter. However, this still marks a strong year-over-year increase from the $1.05 EPS posted in Q3 2024.

The company’s three core operating segments—steel mills, raw materials, and downstream products—are all projected to report lower earnings. Nucor attributes this downturn primarily to volume declines and tighter margins at its electric arc furnace (EAF) steel mills. Meanwhile, its raw materials segment, which includes its David J. Joseph (DJJ) scrap processing operations, faces headwinds from softer profitability. The downstream segment is also under pressure, despite stable volumes and pricing, due to rising input costs per ton.

This guidance places Nucor on a different path than rival Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI), which recently forecasted stronger Q3 earnings driven by robust ferrous spreads and steady shipments. The divergence highlights growing segmentation within the EAF sector and varying exposure to input cost volatility.

Scrap Prices and Steel Margins Squeeze Nucor’s Bottom Line

Nucor’s raw materials division continues to feel the impact of softer scrap metal profitability. The DJJ unit, a critical part of Nucor’s closed-loop recycling model, is experiencing lower margins, despite stable market demand. This follows a broader industry trend, where scrap availability has remained steady, but spreads have tightened due to input cost inflation and global pricing pressures.

In addition, Nucor’s steel mills segment—long the company’s earnings powerhouse—is seeing lower shipment volumes. This has amplified the effects of margin compression in recent months, particularly as construction and infrastructure activity in key U.S. regions shows signs of plateauing. Nucor’s downstream products unit, which benefits from added value and contract stability, is faring better but still faces rising per-ton material costs that threaten its margin resilience.

As competitors like SDI report improved margins on their ferrous recycling and EAF operations, Nucor’s near-term profitability may depend on its ability to navigate raw material pricing volatility and maintain operational efficiency.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Nucor’s Q3 2025 forecast paints a picture of an industry in flux. While year-over-year growth signals strength in long-term demand, near-term profitability remains sensitive to raw material spreads and mill utilization. The disparity between Nucor and SDI’s outlooks underscores how scrap metal pricing and mill productivity are emerging as critical differentiators in the EAF sector. Strategic hedging, diversified downstream contracts, and flexible sourcing may prove vital as the sector heads into a potentially volatile Q4. Investors and procurement managers should watch the October earnings call closely for forward-looking guidance.