Recycled Steel Demand Rebound Signals Optimism in Global Scrap Markets

Steady Pricing Gives Way to Positive Signals in Recycled Steel Demand

The recycled steel demand rebound may finally be emerging after months of pricing stability and low market movement. From May to August, U.S. domestic prices for shredded, prompt, and HMS steel stayed within a narrow $3-per-ton range. This consistency offered predictability to market participants. SA Recycling CEO George Adams said steady pricing supported liquidity across the sector.

However, early September brought more dynamic signals. The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported a sharp increase in U.S. steel output. For the week ending September 6, mills produced 1.795 million tons, up 7.7% year-over-year. Output also rose 1.5% week-over-week. The capacity utilization rate reached 79.2%, compared to 75% one year earlier. This suggests rising steelmaking activity inside the U.S. Growing production could increase demand for recycled steel inputs, which dominate feedstock for domestic electric arc furnace (EAF) mills.

Meanwhile, global scrap market indicators also show upward momentum. India has increased bids for containerized scrap across several ports. Price offers are up by $3 per metric ton, according to Davis Index. This reflects renewed construction activity after seasonal slowdowns. India is now the second-largest importer of U.S. ferrous scrap, making these shifts significant to global supply chains.

Trade Flows, Tariffs, and Turkey’s Tug-of-War Over Scrap and Steel

The recycled steel demand rebound is not limited to the United States. Turkey remains a key global player in ferrous scrap flows. Turkey is historically the top destination for U.S. ferrous scrap. Recent satellite data shows billet and slab imports are rebounding. Navigate Commodities reported declining shipments in July, followed by renewed activity in late summer. Managing Director Atilla Widnell said falling rebar prices in China triggered this export wave. Buyers sought lower-cost semi-finished steel. Steel from China, Indonesia, and Malaysia has again begun arriving in Turkey, competing with locally produced material.

However, Turkish producers are pushing back. The Turkish Steel Producers Association (TCUD) raised alarms over rising steel imports. TCUD claims many of these imports are “cheap and substandard,” often subsidized and damaging domestic production. CEO Uğur Dalbeler of Colakoglu Metalurji supports import restrictions. He warned of “irreparable damage” if action is not taken. The U.S. and EU have already applied trade barriers to counter similar threats. Turkey may follow with its own policies soon.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Steel market signals are aligning for a potential rebound. U.S. mill growth, stronger bids from India, and global trade shifts are converging. However, geopolitical risks—especially in Turkey—could limit upward momentum. Trade tension and policy response will shape Q4 demand. If production and pricing hold, the market could shift decisively. Expect stronger recycled steel dynamics by the end of 2025.