Square Billet Prices Decline in August Amid Weak Global Demand

Global square billet prices trended downward in August 2025, as weak demand from China and global oversupply pressured the market. Most regions experienced a moderate price decline of $5–15 per ton, reflecting diminished buying interest and unstable short-term outlooks. Traders lacked the usual autumn optimism, as sentiment remained subdued across key markets.

Square Billet Prices Slide in Key Export Regions

The Black Sea billet market remained relatively stable but under pressure. FOB prices hovered between $440–445/t throughout August. However, analysts now forecast a potential dip to $430/t FOB, with Russian-origin billets trading at $455–460/t in Turkey. This makes them attractive compared to Turkish domestic offers, which averaged $508/t ex-works.

Turkey’s billet imports surged 48% year-on-year in July, reaching 393,000 tons at an average of $480/t. Russia led the supply, delivering 114,400 tons—up 167% y/y—at an average price of $458/t. Meanwhile, billet prices in Tangshan, China, dropped by $15 to $422/t, driven by inventory buildup and production suspensions ahead of a military parade in Beijing.

Regional Variations in Billet Pricing Persist

Other regions showed mixed trends. In the Persian Gulf, offers held steady, with Saudi Arabian billets priced at $486–490/t ex-works and Bahraini offers at $495/t for September-October delivery. Indonesia saw a $13 decline to $460/t (CFR), in line with regional bearishness.

Notably, Italy was the only major market where square billet prices increased, rising by $12 to $573/t ex-works. This reflects strong domestic demand and a tighter supply situation compared to Asia and the Middle East. However, these gains contrast with broader global softness observed in August.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The drop in square billet prices reflects the fragile balance between global supply and inconsistent demand, particularly in Asia. China’s slowed buying pace, along with increased Russian exports, continues to weigh on market confidence. While Italy shows isolated price strength, the broader trend suggests a cautious outlook heading into Q4. Market participants should monitor Chinese industrial activity and Turkish import trends for signals of future price direction.