Stagnant Ferrous Scrap Market Amid Price Fluctuations and Weak Overseas Demand

Domestic Ferrous Scrap Prices Show Modest Movements in November
The U.S. domestic ferrous scrap market has seen limited price changes in the first 20 days of November, reflecting the overall stagnation in demand. According to the latest data from the Raw Material Data Aggregation Service (RMDAS) by MSA Inc., prices for benchmark scrap grades such as prompt industrial composite and prime scrap have only fluctuated by $1 to $3 per ton in regions like North Midwest and North Central/East for the period of October 21 to November 20.

A notable exception to this trend was seen in the South region, where prompt scrap and shredded scrap prices dropped by $8 and $11 per ton, respectively. These declines reflect the correction of earlier price spikes that occurred in late September and early October, bringing Southern scrap values back in line with the rest of the country. Despite these fluctuations, the national average for prompt industrial composite grade scrap remained strong above $400 per ton at $403 during this period.

Pressure from Declining Overseas Demand, Especially in Turkey
The international market is also contributing to the challenging conditions in the U.S. ferrous scrap market. Recent tracking by Davis Index indicates that Turkish import prices for U.S.-origin heavy melting steel (HMS), a major scrap grade, dropped by $5.90 per metric ton in the week of November 20. This decline reflects weakening demand from Turkish mills, which are facing lower steel rebar prices and muted steel product sales. As a result, Turkish buyers have reduced their bids for imported ferrous scrap, putting additional pressure on scrap processors in the U.S.

Price Trends in Key Scrap Grades
Looking at the broader trends, the national price for No. 1 heavy melting steel (HMS) remained relatively stable, rising by $2 per ton to reach $335 during the late October to November period. Meanwhile, shredded scrap prices fell by $3 per ton to $382, continuing the downtrend seen over the past several months. Prime scrap in the North Midwest region, a key market for the U.S. steel industry, saw a slight decrease to $396 per ton, indicating some softness in demand despite the overall price stability in other regions.

Looking Ahead: Market Outlook and Challenges
The outlook for the ferrous scrap market remains uncertain as both domestic and international forces weigh on pricing and demand. While the U.S. market has shown resilience with prompt scrap prices holding above $400 per ton, overseas demand, particularly from Turkey, is expected to remain muted, making it challenging for U.S. processors to find strong export opportunities as the year draws to a close. Furthermore, steel production struggles, especially in markets like Turkey, may continue to keep bids for imported scrap lower than anticipated.