Syria’s Kurds Face Uncertainty as Islamist Rebels Seize Power

Syria’s Kurds Face Uncertainty as Islamist Rebels Consolidate Power

The fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has left Syria’s Kurdish population in an increasingly precarious position. With Islamist rebel factions gaining control over key territories, the future of Kurdish autonomy in Syria is under significant threat. Despite playing a crucial role in the fight against ISIS and maintaining a semi-autonomous region in northern Syria, Kurdish forces now face mounting pressure from Turkish-backed opposition forces and shifting alliances in the post-Assad era.

Kurdish Forces at a Crossroads

For years, Syria’s Kurds—who represent the country’s largest ethnic minority—have sought greater autonomy, a goal they partially achieved by establishing self-governing regions during the civil war. Led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish military coalition played a vital role in defeating ISIS, capturing key cities like Raqqa with the support of U.S. airstrikes and special forces.

However, with the recent fall of Assad’s government, Kurdish-held areas have come under growing pressure from the Sunni Arab rebel factions that now dominate much of Syria. These factions, some of which receive military backing from Turkey, have begun expelling Kurdish forces from strategic locations such as Deir al-Zour and Manbij. The new rebel leadership has made overtures to Kurdish groups, promising peaceful coexistence, but their deep ties to Turkey complicate the prospect of Kurdish participation in post-war governance.

Turkey’s Influence and Kurdish Vulnerabilities

Turkey has long viewed the Kurdish YPG (People’s Defense Units), a key component of the SDF, as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara designates as a terrorist organization. As a result, Turkey has consistently opposed Kurdish autonomy in Syria, launching multiple military operations to weaken Kurdish influence.

Turkish-backed forces, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), have seized several Kurdish-held regions, further escalating tensions. Reports indicate that Turkish drone strikes on Kurdish positions and civilian areas have continued even after Assad’s removal, with Ankara justifying its actions as counterterrorism operations. This has left Kurdish civilians trapped between various armed groups, as they struggle to protect their communities from both Turkish-backed opposition forces and ISIS remnants.

The U.S. Role and Uncertain Alliances

The Kurds have historically relied on U.S. military support to safeguard their autonomy, but with shifting geopolitical priorities, that support appears increasingly fragile. U.S. troops remain stationed in eastern Syria, ostensibly to prevent an ISIS resurgence and protect Kurdish-controlled territories. However, the incoming Trump administration has signaled a potential pivot away from long-term military engagements in the region.

During his first term, President Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of U.S. troops from northern Syria in 2019 allowed Turkey to launch a major offensive against Kurdish forces, drawing bipartisan criticism in Washington. Although U.S. forces later returned to secure oil fields in Kurdish-held areas, the long-term future of the U.S.-Kurdish alliance remains uncertain, raising concerns about whether Kurdish forces will be left without international support in the coming months.

What Lies Ahead for Syria’s Kurds?

As Syria undergoes its most significant political transformation in decades, the fate of its Kurdish population remains unclear. While the new rebel leadership under Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammed al-Golani) has not formally rejected Kurdish participation in governance, their ties to Turkey make full Kurdish inclusion unlikely. A peace deal incorporating Kurdish forces would almost certainly face opposition from Ankara, which remains committed to preventing Kurdish autonomy.

In addition, ISIS remnants continue to pose a significant security threat in Kurdish-held territories, further complicating the situation. As Kurdish leaders navigate this shifting landscape, their ability to maintain military cohesion, secure alliances, and negotiate their political future will determine whether they can preserve their hard-won autonomy in a post-Assad Syria.