Syria’s Kurds Face Uncertainty as Islamist Rebels Seize Power

The fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has left Syria’s Kurdish region in a state of uncertainty, as Islamist rebel factions gain ground and shift the balance of power in the country. While Kurds in Syria have long maintained a degree of autonomy, their future now hangs in the balance with the rise of Sunni Arab rebel groups backed by Turkey, a long-time adversary of the Kurds. As Kurdish forces battle both Islamic State (IS) fighters and Turkish-backed opposition forces, the question of their role in a post-Assad Syria is becoming increasingly precarious.

Kurdish Forces at a Crossroads
Syria’s Kurds, who make up the country’s largest ethnic minority, have historically fought for their autonomy and were key allies to the U.S. in the battle against ISIS. With their stronghold in northern Syria, particularly in the oil-rich east, Kurdish forces — primarily the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — have carved out a semi-autonomous region. Supported by U.S. airstrikes and special forces, the SDF played a pivotal role in driving out ISIS and capturing key cities like Raqqa. However, with the fall of Assad’s regime, Kurdish autonomy is under threat.

The Sunni Arab rebels, who toppled Assad’s government, now control large swaths of territory, including areas once held by Kurdish forces. While the new rebel leadership has made overtures to the Kurds, promising peace, they have also violently expelled Kurdish fighters from strategic regions such as Deir al-Zour and Manbij. The rebellion’s ties to Turkey, a long-time foe of the Kurds, complicate the prospects of any Kurdish participation in the new Syria.

Turkey’s Role and Ongoing Hostilities
Turkey views Kurdish forces, particularly the YPG (People’s Defense Units), as an extension of the Kurdish separatist movement within its own borders. As a result, Turkey has consistently opposed Kurdish autonomy in Syria and has backed Syrian rebel factions that oppose Kurdish influence. In recent years, Turkey has launched military operations against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, including airstrikes on Kurdish convoys and towns.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), which is primarily composed of opposition forces, has seized several Kurdish-held territories, exacerbating tensions. The ongoing Turkish drone strikes on Kurdish civilian areas, often targeting what they claim are military positions, have caused widespread fear among the Kurdish population. In this volatile environment, Kurdish civilians are caught between the competing forces of the Assad regime, Turkish-backed rebels, and ISIS remnants.

The U.S. Alliance and Future Uncertainty
The Kurds in Syria have long relied on U.S. support, both militarily and politically, to safeguard their autonomy. U.S. forces remain stationed in eastern Syria to prevent a resurgence of ISIS and to protect Kurdish-controlled territories. However, with the incoming Trump administration signaling a potential pivot away from Middle Eastern involvement, the future of the U.S.-Kurdish alliance is uncertain.

During his first term, President Trump made controversial moves, including withdrawing U.S. troops from northern Syria and allowing Turkey to launch an offensive against the Kurds in 2019. This decision was widely criticized by both Democrats and Republicans, with accusations of betraying a key ally. Trump later reversed course, approving the deployment of troops to secure oil fields in eastern Syria, but the overall direction of U.S. policy remains unclear.

What Lies Ahead for Syria’s Kurds?
The fate of Syria’s Kurds now hinges on the evolving dynamics of the Syrian conflict. While some rebel factions have shown a willingness to cooperate with the Kurds, Turkey’s significant influence in the new political order poses a major obstacle to Kurdish autonomy. The rebels, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammed al-Golani), have not overtly rejected the Kurds but have not fully embraced them either. A future peace deal that incorporates the Kurds into the new Syria is still uncertain, as any agreement would likely anger Turkey, a key player in the post-Assad era.

Moreover, the ongoing presence of ISIS fighters in Syria, particularly in Kurdish-held areas, continues to complicate the situation. The Kurdish forces, despite their military successes, are still engaged in a battle against ISIS remnants, who are now moving freely across the country. The Kurds’ ability to fend off these threats, while also managing relations with Turkish-backed forces and the new Syrian leadership, will be critical in determining their future in a post-Assad Syria.