The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has assessed the impact of new U.S. tariffs on Ukrainian exports and found that the direct effects will be minimal. The report highlights that exports from Ukraine to the U.S. accounted for only 2.2% of total merchandise exports in 2024, amounting to $0.9 billion. The U.S. imposed a modest 10% tariff on Ukrainian goods due to the surplus trade in goods with Ukraine. Despite this, the NBU expects the direct impact to be negligible.
Direct Effects of US Tariffs on Ukrainian Exports
The NBU’s forecast suggests that Ukrainian exports will not face critical disruptions due to the U.S. tariffs. A significant portion of Ukraine’s exports to the U.S. consists of cast iron (42%), steel products, and pipe products (13%). The NBU predicts that the demand for these products, particularly cast iron and steel, will not undergo major changes due to the relatively high share of pig iron imports in U.S. consumption. Even in the presence of anti-dumping duties, exports of pipe products are expected to continue without critical issues.
Food products such as oil, honey, and juices make up 15.8% of Ukraine’s exports to the U.S. The NBU is optimistic that the low price elasticity and strong market demand for these products will allow Ukrainian exporters to reorient and explore new markets, minimizing losses.
Indirect Impact: Slower Economic Activity from Trade Confrontations
While the direct effects of U.S. tariffs are minimal, the NBU highlights a stronger indirect impact on Ukraine’s economy. A slowdown in economic activity in key trading partners, such as the Eurozone and Central and Eastern Europe, is likely due to the ongoing trade conflicts. This slowdown may result in reduced external demand for Ukrainian products. As a result, the NBU has downgraded Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast to 3.1% in 2025.
However, the NBU remains confident that this slowdown will not have long-term negative effects on Ukraine’s economic growth. The experiences of other countries in restructuring global value chains and fiscal stimulus measures are expected to mitigate the long-term consequences of these trade confrontations.
Growing Geopolitical Uncertainty and De-Globalization Trends
The NBU also points to increasing geopolitical uncertainty and the rise of de-globalization. As trade confrontations escalate worldwide, these factors may create a less favorable external environment for Ukraine. If the ongoing tariff wars lead to prolonged political polarization and a weakened global economy, the external demand for Ukrainian goods could suffer further. The NBU stresses that these factors could lead to a more significant and prolonged economic downturn, beyond the current macroeconomic forecasts.
Conclusion: Minimal Direct Impact, But a Cautious Outlook on Global Trade
While the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on Ukrainian exports remains minimal, the indirect consequences could be more pronounced. The slowdown in economic activity from trade confrontations, particularly in the Eurozone, could reduce external demand for Ukrainian products. As geopolitical uncertainty and de-globalization trends continue to unfold, Ukraine may face additional challenges. The NBU emphasizes the need for vigilance and adaptation to these evolving global dynamics.
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