Tin Market Still Beholden to the Fortunes of Myanmar Mine

Tin Market Impacted by Man Maw Mine Closure

The tin market continues to outperform other LME base metals amid uncertainty surrounding Myanmar’s Man Maw mine. The mine, one of the world’s largest tin sources, has been closed for over two years due to a resource audit. Despite new mining permits issued six months ago, production has yet to resume, causing the flow of tin concentrates to China to nearly halt. This supply disruption pushed LME tin prices from below $30,000 per ton in April to over $35,000 by August.

Supply Challenges and Market Responses

China’s tin smelters have struggled to replace lost Man Maw supplies. Imports from Myanmar dropped 77% year-on-year, while alternative sources like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Australia, and Nigeria increased their tin concentrate exports. Still, total Chinese imports declined by 32% through July, squeezing smelter margins and lowering capacity utilization below 70%. Yunnan Tin’s 45-day smelter overhaul highlights industry-wide efforts to balance supply. However, global refined tin inventories remain stable, supported by stronger exports from Indonesia and weakened electronics demand amid US-China trade tensions.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Tin’s price surge reflects market sensitivity to Myanmar’s supply uncertainty, with fund investors betting on prolonged disruptions. While alternative suppliers mitigate refined tin shortages, the Man Maw mine’s status will ultimately dictate market direction. Close monitoring of China’s import flows is crucial for forecasting tin’s near-term trends. This episode underlines the strategic vulnerability of global tin supply chains dependent on a few key sources.