Trump’s Re-election: A Setback for Global Climate Action, But Green Transition May Continue

Experts Warn of Setback in Climate Efforts, But Expect Shift Toward Clean Energy to Persist
Donald Trump’s second term victory in the 2024 US Presidential election has sparked widespread concerns about the future of global climate action. Known for dismissing climate change as a “hoax” and dismantling environmental protections during his first term, Trump has promised a renewed push for oil drilling and a withdrawal from major climate agreements. Despite these challenges, experts argue that the global green transition may continue, driven by market forces and technological advancements.

Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” Approach: Threat to Emissions Reduction
Trump has vowed to roll back key climate policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has significantly boosted clean energy investment in the US. While he aims to block funds for green energy projects and dismantle Biden’s climate agenda, experts point out that green technologies are already gaining momentum. The subsidies from the IRA have created thousands of jobs, particularly in Republican states, and will likely continue driving investments in renewable energy regardless of the US federal government’s stance.

Dan Lashof, US director of the World Resources Institute, emphasized that while Trump may slow down federal efforts, states, cities, and businesses are already stepping in to lead on climate action. With electric transportation and clean energy technologies increasingly profitable, Lashof believes the green transition will maintain its course.

US Pullout from Paris Agreement: A Major Blow to Global Climate Diplomacy
One of Trump’s key promises is to pull the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement again. If this happens, the US would join just a few other nations outside the deal, including Iran, Libya, and Yemen. Experts worry that such a move would severely weaken the global climate effort, reducing the pressure on other major emitters to increase their climate commitments.

Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief and architect of the Paris Agreement, described the US exit as a “major blow” to global climate action. However, she remains optimistic that the transition to decarbonize the global economy will continue, driven by the increasing competitiveness of clean energy technologies.

Europe’s Role in Global Climate Action: A Call for Leadership
In the face of Trump’s likely pullback from international climate agreements, European leaders are being urged to take a stronger role in global climate diplomacy. Laurence Tubiana, the CEO of the European Climate Foundation, stressed the importance of Europe pushing forward with its climate commitments, both out of moral responsibility and strategic interest. Tubiana believes that the Paris Agreement remains strong, and Europe’s leadership is crucial to ensuring progress on global emissions reductions.

She further stated that COP29 in Baku could still produce a positive outcome if Europe takes the initiative. Mélanie Vogel of the European Green Party echoed this sentiment, calling on Europe to defend democratic values, protect the environment, and offer global solidarity in the face of rising right-wing nationalism.

The Cost of Delay: Increased Emissions and Economic Risks
A recent analysis by Carbon Brief found that if Trump follows through on his promises, US emissions could increase by 4 billion tonnes by 2030, undermining global efforts to combat climate change. This increase would negate the progress made by renewable energy sources like wind and solar over the past five years, effectively setting back global emissions reduction targets by decades.

The US is also a major contributor to global climate finance, and its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement would likely reduce its financial commitments to developing countries. This loss of funding could impede efforts to help vulnerable nations adapt to climate change.

The Bottom Line: Is Europe Ready to Lead?
As global climate diplomacy faces a potential setback with Trump’s second term, the burden of leadership falls heavily on Europe. European policymakers and activists are calling for stronger commitments to clean energy and climate resilience, underscoring the need for international cooperation to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.