Trump’s Return: US-EU Tech Relations Set for Evolution, Not Revolution

Shifts in US-EU Tech Relations Under Trump’s Leadership
As Donald Trump prepares for his second term as US president, experts suggest that US-EU technology relations will likely experience more of an evolution than a dramatic transformation. Jovan Kurbalija, Executive Director of the DiploFoundation, believes that while there will be significant adjustments to tech policies compared to the Biden administration, the core aspects will largely remain intact. Trump’s approach is expected to refine and shift certain areas, including content moderation, tariffs, taxation, and cybersecurity, with more attention on national sovereignty and less emphasis on multilateral cooperation.

Content Moderation and Accountability: A Key Divergence with the EU
A major difference in Trump’s approach compared to the EU is his stance on social media accountability. The ultra-conservative Project 2025, a Republican policy manifesto, proposes stripping social media companies of their protections under Section 230 of the US Diplomat Act, holding companies liable for the content posted on their platforms. While this aligns with EU goals for accountability, Trump’s desire to avoid heavy regulation of content moderation stands in contrast to the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA), which impose stricter regulations. As the US and EU have converged on the issue of Big Tech accountability, the potential divergence in Trump’s policy could create tension, as Trump prefers corporate responsibility without government-imposed regulations.

Potential Trade Tariffs and EU’s Countermeasures
Trade tariffs remain a key tool in Trump’s diplomatic strategy, and experts predict that the US could impose tariffs on EU goods, including technology exports. In retaliation, the EU could enforce stricter antitrust and anti-monopoly measures on US tech companies, such as Google, Apple, and Microsoft. This could involve higher taxes on Big Tech, which would impact the budgets of state governments but not necessarily the cost to consumers. The European market, with over 500 million people, offers significant leverage for the EU over US tech giants, making this a powerful bargaining chip in potential trade negotiations.

The Future of US-EU Technology Cooperation: A Shift Towards Bilateral Deals
Under President Biden, the US-EU Technology Council facilitated important cooperation, such as coordinating data transfer rules and addressing cybersecurity issues related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. However, with Trump’s return, experts predict that the EU might not continue to enjoy the same level of coordination. Trump has historically preferred bilateral negotiations with individual countries rather than working through large multilateral bodies like the EU, which gives him more flexibility in tailoring agreements. This could lead to more transparent but potentially more complex negotiations with the EU, which may have to adapt its approach and present a more unified front on technology issues.