UBS Lifts 2026 Gold Price Forecasts on US Macro Risks
UBS analysts have increased their gold price targets for 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent US macroeconomic risks and a global shift toward de-dollarization. The Swiss bank now expects gold to average $3,600 per ounce in the March quarter of 2026, up $100 from prior forecasts. Prices are projected to climb further to $3,700 per ounce in June and September 2026, signaling strong investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
The forecast revision stems from expectations of sustained demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks worldwide. UBS highlights factors such as geopolitical tensions, fiscal sustainability concerns, and questions around Federal Reserve independence as drivers of increased gold buying. These trends reinforce gold’s role as a preferred reserve asset amid uncertainty surrounding the US dollar.
Growing Central Bank Demand and Global De-Dollarization Impact Gold Prices
Central banks continue to boost their gold reserves, approaching record annual purchases despite rising prices. UBS projects global gold demand will rise by 3% to 4,760 tonnes in 2025—the highest since 2011. This persistent accumulation underpins gold’s growing importance in global financial portfolios.
Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing trade disputes have sparked safe-haven buying, pushing gold prices to historic highs. UBS notes that gold surged nearly 28% this year, with a record peak of $3,500 per ounce in April. This momentum aligns with Citi’s recent short-term forecast of $3,300 to $3,600 per ounce amid tariff-related inflation concerns.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
UBS’s upward revision of gold price forecasts highlights the metal’s critical role amid rising US macroeconomic risks and a global pivot away from the dollar. Central banks’ robust buying patterns and ETF inflows signal sustained investor confidence in gold as a hedge against uncertainty. Looking forward, gold’s strategic value will likely strengthen, especially as geopolitical tensions and fiscal challenges persist. Market participants should closely monitor these macro drivers, which will shape gold price trends through 2026 and beyond.
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