Ukraine Iron Ore Exports Fall 13% Amid Market and Policy Headwinds

Iron Ore Shipments to China, Slovakia, and Poland Decline Sharply

Ukraine’s iron ore exports dropped by 12.8% year-over-year during January–May 2025, totaling 13.54 million tons. The figures, reveal consistent declines in shipments to major destinations including China, Slovakia, and Poland. China remained the leading buyer with 7.06 million tons, but this still marked a 4.3% drop from last year.

Poland and Slovakia also cut imports by 5.6% and 8.8%, respectively. In May alone, exports decreased to 2.39 million tons, down 23.4% year-over-year and 9.7% from April. This continued a four-month streak of annual decline and a second consecutive month of weaker performance.

The most notable drop in May came from shipments to China, which plunged 27% month-on-month to 1.05 million tons. Meanwhile, Slovakia and Poland saw minor month-on-month increases but remained far below 2024 levels.

Ukraine Iron Ore Exports Face Dual Pressure from Market and Policy

Falling global prices and unresolved domestic fiscal issues are squeezing Ukraine’s iron ore industry. On June 20, 2025, Dalian iron ore futures for September fell to $97.9/t, while Singapore contracts for July dipped to $93.6/t—the lowest since April. Price volatility reflects both slowing global demand and macroeconomic uncertainty.

At home, producers face growing frustration over delayed VAT refunds. Ferrexpo, one of Ukraine’s top pellet exporters, shut down two production lines in May due to a $25 million VAT debt. According to Oleksandr Kalenkov, President of Ukrmetprom, the VAT non-refund issue threatens GDP contributions, jobs, and export earnings.

Despite prior export momentum in 2024, when Ukraine shipped 33.7 million tons (+89.9% y/y), the 2025 trajectory appears unstable. Challenges such as high logistics costs, war-related disruptions, and taxation distortions could permanently weaken Ukraine’s competitive edge in global iron ore supply chains.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Ukraine’s iron ore sector is navigating a perfect storm. Demand erosion in key Asian and European markets, combined with damaging domestic fiscal inertia, is pushing miners to the brink. Without prompt government intervention—especially VAT resolution and export incentives—Ukraine risks long-term degradation of a vital export sector. Ferrexpo’s partial shutdown may signal broader production cuts if macro and microeconomic pressures continue unchecked. Strategic policy shifts are essential to safeguard export volumes and foreign exchange reserves in the second half of 2025.