Mercuria Predicts Major Copper Price Surge Amid US Arbitrage Demand

Global Arbitrage Dynamics Drive Copper Surge

Mercuria Energy’s metals chief, Kostas Bintas, warns that aggressive US-bound copper shipments could trigger a major price rally. Traders are capitalizing on high Comex premiums and looming tariff threats, which have intensified arbitrage flows. These movements are straining global inventories, creating a tight market even as Chinese demand slows. Bintas emphasizes that ongoing US flows are likely to deplete cathode availability elsewhere, particularly in Asia and Europe. The dynamics illustrate a market increasingly driven by policy and trade incentives rather than traditional supply-demand fundamentals.

Meanwhile, Mercuria’s expansion in metals trading has amplified market attention. Their positions in copper and aluminum arbitrage have already affected LME rules and pricing structures. Bintas notes that market participants are quickly recognizing the special dynamic created by US import premiums, which could cause copper prices to climb toward historical highs.

Global Supply and Market Implications

Mine disruptions, export strategies, and regional premiums are further tightening the market. Chile’s Codelco recently offered benchmark premiums exceeding $300 per ton to Asian buyers, signaling fierce competition for deliverable copper. Meanwhile, LME benchmarks continue near record levels, reflecting global scarcity. Mercuria highlights the emergence of a two-speed market: LME and Comex contracts are largely supported by Western metal, while Shanghai Futures Exchange contracts rely on local supply, creating regional price disparities.

As a result, traditional Chinese demand signals now play a secondary role in shaping global prices. With US import flows continuing to dominate, Asian buyers may face bidding wars for limited copper supplies, especially after Chinese New Year when cathode availability is expected to tighten further.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Copper markets are entering a unique bull cycle fueled by US policy, arbitrage flows, and geopolitical uncertainty. Traders and producers must monitor Comex shipments closely to anticipate regional shortages. While global supply shows surplus in some areas, the market is structurally tight. Investors should prepare for record highs, and companies relying on copper must plan for elevated premiums and constrained availability.