US Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Decline Amid Stabilizing Market

In late April 2025, U.S. hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices dropped after reaching a temporary high.
Steelmakers lowered offers from $975/mt to $952/mt EXW between April 11 and 25, according to Kallanish. This change followed strong price reactions caused by the 25% import tariffs on steel products announced earlier in the month.

Late April Sees Price Adjustment

Traders expected the $975/mt price level would not last long.
They noted that it did not reflect true buyer demand.
As a result, HRC prices fell slightly, but remained supported by consistent purchasing activity.
Stable buyer interest helped prevent any sharp price drop.

Global Market Trends Influence US Prices

China’s and India’s coil markets also showed shifts that affect U.S. pricing.
Indian HRC prices rose $8, reaching $600/t FOB by April 25.
In contrast, southern Europe saw prices fall €5 to €540/t CIF.
Chinese HRC prices held steady at $470/t FOB, suggesting they may have reached a floor.
Shanghai May futures for hot-rolled steel rose $7 to $446–$449/t, indicating possible market stabilization.

Auto demand, the largest source of HRC consumption, remains strong.
Cox Automotive forecasts April 2025 U.S. car sales to rise 4.6% year-over-year to 1.395 million units.
However, this is 12% lower than in March, despite equal trading days.
Last month’s sales surged in anticipation of U.S. auto import duties.
With inventory falling from 3 million to 2.7 million units in March, automakers may now increase steel purchases.

Despite this, Chinese traders do not expect a major price rebound.
Last week, October HRC contracts traded at $439/t.
This reflects cautious market sentiment, especially after the CPC Politburo meeting on April 25 yielded no new economic support measures.

China’s crude steel output rose 4.6% year-over-year in March 2025, totaling 92.84 million tons.
This was the highest output in the last ten months and may contribute to global supply pressure.