US Scrap Market Faces Neutral Sentiment as 2025 Ends
As December 2025 begins, the US ferrous scrap market shows a neutral sentiment, reflecting little to no change in overall market direction. The Trend Indicator for scrap prices dipped slightly to 47.9, signaling a mild 1% drop in prices month-over-month. This marks the second consecutive month of relatively flat to lower expectations, as participants in the market show no strong conviction in either direction.
Diverging Sentiments Between Buyers and Sellers
Market sentiment remains split among participants, highlighting a diverging outlook for the US scrap market. Sellers, with a Trend Indicator reading of 55.2, continue to express moderate optimism, expecting slight improvements. In contrast, buyers have become more bearish, with a lower reading of just 38.5. This difference in sentiment suggests a lack of unified market momentum, with some stakeholders remaining cautious about future price trends.
Brokers, who are typically neutral parties, reported a steady 50 on the Trend Indicator, aligning with the broader trend of market uncertainty. The overall consensus among market participants stands at 65%, indicating that a moderate level of disagreement persists regarding future price movements and market conditions.
Inventory Levels and Market Drivers: Little Change in Sight
Inventory levels have declined slightly to 44.9, reflecting below-average stock positions at mills. However, survey responses point to “All Unchanged” as the prevailing market driver, signaling that there are no immediate supply or demand catalysts pushing prices higher or lower. While some industry participants mentioned weak finished steel prices and mill outages, no significant seasonal or macroeconomic factors seem to be influencing the market in December.
Despite the muted market dynamics, uncertainty remains a key theme. Economic activity has been stagnant, and while there is some concern over mill disruptions, there’s no clear sign of a significant price shift on the horizon. The market is expected to continue navigating a steady but unspectacular landscape in the coming weeks.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
The US scrap market’s outlook for December 2025 reflects an ongoing lack of decisive factors influencing price movements. While inventory levels are slightly lower and sentiment among sellers remains cautiously optimistic, buyers are leaning bearish, adding to the market’s uncertainty. In the absence of major supply-side disruptions or macroeconomic shifts, the scrap market is likely to experience moderate price adjustments, but no sharp volatility is expected in the near term. Market participants will need to closely monitor external economic factors, particularly steel pricing and production rates, to gauge potential shifts in the scrap market heading into 2026.
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