US Scrap Trends Outlook: January 2026 Market Analysis

US Scrap Trends Outlook Signals Modest Gains

The US ferrous scrap market enters January 2026 on stable footing, signaling modest gains for the month. The Trend Indicator reached 57.3, forecasting a 3.2% month-on-month price increase following December’s 4.2% rise. Overall sentiment aligns with the 24-month average, reflecting balanced expectations among market participants.

Inventory levels remain slightly above average at 52.2, indicating steady mill stocking despite tighter supplies. Surveyed buyers display the most bullish outlook at 59.72, while brokers remain cautious at 55. Sellers’ sentiment also stays positive at 57.3, supporting a generally optimistic market perspective.

Exports continue to firm slightly, though tight domestic supply keeps prices stable. Analysts note that weather-related disruptions and political uncertainty may influence flows but are unlikely to significantly affect pricing this month. As a result, the US scrap market appears poised for incremental, rather than dramatic, gains.

Market Fundamentals and Supply Dynamics

January’s modest forecast stems from balanced fundamentals across buyers, sellers, and brokers. Low collection volumes and tight availability support price stability. Meanwhile, the consensus level at 58% reinforces that overall market sentiment remains aligned with long-term trends.

Political uncertainty and macroeconomic developments could create volatility, but current conditions suggest minimal disruption. Buyers continue to lead the bullish sentiment, signaling confidence in near-term demand. Industry participants should monitor export trends and inventory adjustments for potential market shifts.

Overall, US scrap pricing in January 2026 reflects a cautiously optimistic environment. Tight supply and steady demand underpin stable growth, with few dramatic price movements expected.

 

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The January 2026 outlook confirms that the US scrap market is stabilizing after late-2025 gains. Companies like Nucor, Schnitzer Steel, and Steel Dynamics may benefit from tight supply and modest pricing improvements. Traders should watch inventory trends, macroeconomic policy shifts, and export volumes, as these factors will dictate near-term price movements. Long-term, steady domestic demand for ferrous scrap supports continued cautious optimism in 2026.