Ferrous Scrap Market Faces Stalemate in September 2025
The US scrap trends outlook for September 2025 points to a stable yet subdued ferrous scrap market. According to the Trend Indicator, the market softened slightly to 47.4, down from neutral levels, suggesting mild bearish sentiment. This equates to a forecasted month-on-month price movement of -0.7%. Market consensus reached 67%, reflecting strong alignment among participants on the current direction.
Sentiment varies depending on market position. Buyers remain notably bearish, posting a reading of 38.46 as they expect price softening. In contrast, sellers hold a more optimistic stance at 53.7, while brokers stay neutral at 50.0. Inventory levels, reported at 44.1, remain below average, further reinforcing a cautious tone.
The prevailing outlook is that no single force—be it supply, demand, or macroeconomic disruption—is likely to significantly move the market this month. As a result, most participants anticipate continued price stagnation, underscored by flat economic signals and seasonal mill shutdowns.
Market Signals Show Limited Movement Despite Diverging Sentiment
The most common driver cited in September’s outlook is “All Unchanged.” This reflects a widespread belief that neither bullish nor bearish factors will dominate in the short term. Open-ended survey responses cite weak industrial activity, ongoing mill maintenance, and a lack of catalysts for growth or decline.
Interestingly, while buyers lean toward caution, their behavior appears tied to macro-level uncertainties rather than specific supply shortages. Meanwhile, sellers seem to maintain pricing confidence due to below-average inventories and seasonal demand stabilization.
Although the US scrap market is not facing acute downward pressure, it also lacks upward momentum. Market watchers note that without a shift in industrial output or a surprise in raw material demand, prices are likely to continue moving sideways through the rest of the month.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
The US scrap trends outlook for September 2025 reveals a market in search of direction. While the numbers suggest neutrality, sentiment divides show underlying tension. Buyers hesitate, expecting slight price drops, while sellers cling to optimism driven by low stock levels. In reality, no strong factor has emerged to break the current deadlock. As such, price volatility may remain subdued unless new economic data or mill activity shifts market expectations. For now, a holding pattern dominates the ferrous scrap landscape.
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