Brazil Iron Ore Exports Hit Record 41.1 Million Tons in July

Brazil Iron Ore Exports Reach Historic High

Brazil exported 41.1 million tons of iron ore in July 2025, the highest monthly total in its history. This new milestone surpasses the previous record of 39.5 million tons set in December 2015, according to official data cited by Reuters. The 4.7% year-on-year increase highlights Brazil’s continued dominance in the global iron ore market, even as the industry faces fluctuating demand and pricing.

However, despite the surge in volume, revenues fell by 8.8% compared to the same period last year. Total income reached $2.62 billion in July, largely due to a 13% year-on-year drop in average iron ore prices. Market analysts attribute the price weakness to ongoing concerns over Chinese demand and abundant global supply.

Brazilian mining association Ibram noted a recent uptick in sector confidence. This rebound stems from renewed production activity and major Chinese infrastructure projects gaining momentum. These developments have supported international pricing and could bolster demand further if China continues its stimulus push.

Outlook for Iron Ore Prices Remains Uncertain

Market sentiment around iron ore remains cautiously optimistic despite short-term volatility. The global iron ore market began a noticeable uptrend in July following more than three months of stagnation. Analysts now watch China’s infrastructure and industrial policy closely, as it will heavily influence pricing.

Moody’s forecasts iron ore prices to stay within the $80–100 per ton range over the next 12–18 months. The ratings agency sees China’s subdued demand as a key risk, even with Brazil’s record-setting export volume. Similarly, BMI Research maintains its 2025 average price forecast at $100/t, citing stable supply but muted demand from top buyers.

If China proceeds with aggressive stimulus and infrastructure spending, iron ore prices could remain above the $100/t threshold. This would provide relief to key producers such as Brazil’s Vale S.A., which relies heavily on stable export flows to sustain margins.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Brazil’s record iron ore exports reflect the nation’s logistical strength and production resilience. However, revenue pressure underlines a growing mismatch between supply strength and pricing power. While July’s surge signals recovery, the real test lies ahead. Should China’s stimulus prove underwhelming, excess supply could continue to depress prices. Stakeholders must closely monitor shifts in Chinese infrastructure policy and potential supply chain constraints. A sustained rebound in pricing will require not just volume, but strong downstream demand.